Football betting: England vs Croatia

After turning around a handsome profit from last week's recommendations it's all too easy to bask in the afterglow of success, but as England coach Steve McClaren will tell you, you're only as good as your last performance, which certainly doesn't bode too well for England fans this week. If any viewers actually lasted the full 90 minutes of last Friday's bore-fest in Vienna without falling asleep, changing channels or losing the will to live then they are either insomniacs, have lost the use of their hands or backed the 1-0 win. A similar scoreline at Wembley on Wednesday will be more than enough to see the Three Lions roar - well miaow - their way to the Euro 2008 championships next summer but just because Israel played out of their skins against Russia does not mean that England will. Sure, Croatia have already qualified, have nothing to play for and lost to Macedonia on Saturday, but then Israel had lost both of their previous two matches and had nothing but the prospect of a fourth-place finish in Euro 2008 qualifying to stir them to victory against Russia in Tel Aviv. All of which amounts to a nail-biting finish on Wednesday. It should be added that it isn't all McClaren's fault - he hasn't been particularly lucky with injuries this Euro 2008 campaign and will be without Gary Neville, John Terry, Michael Owen, Wayne Rooney, Rio Ferdinand and Emile Heskey for the visit of the group leaders. Hopefully, Paul Robinson will also be dropped but I wouldn't hold your breath. England's best hope surely lies in a five-man midfield supporting Peter Crouch on his own up front. Seemingly a defensive strategy, this is the only system that will enable Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard to steam forward in search of glory, while Gareth Barry or Owen Hargreaves (or both) do the dirty work. The problem is, though, that Croatia are a better side than injury-ravaged England. Luka Modri? and Niko Kranj?ar are playmakers of growing maturity and will revel in the perfect playing conditions of Wembley, which will contrast starkly to Saturday's mudbath in Skopje. Arsenal's Eduardo da Silva, meanwhile, has scored ten goals in eleven Euro 2008 qualifying matches and will fancy his chances of extending his tally against England's makeshift defence. But with Lampard and Gerrard just as likely to benefit from their license to thrill in what could well be a wide open game England can get the draw they need. With Paddy Power refunding all losing single, first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets in the event of a Croatia victory you could do worse than back Eduardo to score first at a generous 9/1. Verdict: 2pts England v Croatia to draw @ 9/4 (Paddy Power); 1pt Eduardo first goalscorer @ 9/1 (Paddy Power).