FRANCE VS MEXICO LAST MINUTE PREDICTIONS AND STARTING LINEUPS
France are definitely the favourites today but it's clear that the bookmakers think they are beatable and every single major bookie is listing France at above even money to win today. That's great news if you're a fan of France as you generally don't get odds of over even-money on favourites.
Here are the starting lineups:
France: 1-Hugo Lloris; 2-Bacary Sagna, 3-Eric Abidal, 5-William Gallas, 13-Patrice Evra; 14-Jeremy Toulalan, 19-Abou Diaby; 15-Florent Malouda, 7-Franck Ribery, 10-Sidney Govou; 21-Nicolas Anelka.
Mexico: 1-Oscar Perez; 16-Efrain Juarez, 4-Rafael Marquez, 2-Francisco Rodriguez, 3-Carlos Salcido, 6-Gerardo Torrado, 15-Hector Moreno, 5-Ricardo Osorio, 17-Giovani Dos Santos, 9-Guillermo Franco, 11-Carlos Vela.
Mexico can be backed at a 4.0 price and I think that's a sign of confidence as well. The bookmakers have seen plenty of long-shot wins here and it looks like no favourites are safe as several countries have produced some dogged and organized performances to compensate for their relative lack of impact players.
The issue here though for Mexico is that they aren't one of those ultra-organized defensive teams like North Korea or Switzerland. They tend to adopt a score-one-more-than-you approach and I'm not sure how easy that is to replicate against a side like France. The draw is priced at 3.1 and I think a few people might find that a popular option.
A 1-0 result to the French looks like the favoured outcome here and you'll find that priced out at 5.5 while a 1-1 draw is the next favourite correct score with a 6.0 price. A 0-0 draw is listed at a 6.5 listing while a 1-0 victory to Mexico is priced at 8.5- that's the same price as a 2-0 result to France.
It's clear that the bookies don't expect a particularly high-scoring affair and, I think that with both teams having their better players up front, I think there are some decent value opportunities for folks who favour a few goals.
The second games are always a bit more open than the first and both sides know that a draw isn't good enough and a loss is disastrous. It's safe to say that if you lose this match that you as well be on your way home. France are under enough pressure as it is and this probably doesn't help. Mexico are expected to do well, but getting through to the knockout round has always been viewed as a bonus.
I think France may crumble on a stage this big and let it be known that we didn't think they would be Group A winners and they may not even get through to the next round. They have 90 minutes to turn their World Cup around.