Gold Cup Preview - Royal Ascot at York (June 14th)

Being overly confident about any horse in any race can be a recipe for making one look rather foolish, especially when the horse in question is at the head of the market. However, in Westerner I believe we have an absolute banker for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot at York, so my advice is simple: lap up the generally available 11-4.Over the last couple of season's Westerner has proven himself to be France's leading stayer, and the six-year-old has looked as good as ever in his two outings this term, cosily beating Allez Olive over two miles at Longchamp on both occasions. In this race last year, run at its spiritual home, Ascot, Westerner had to play second fiddle to Godolphin's Papineau. However, the ground was very fast that day, which wouldn't have been ideal for the French raider, and he is 2lb better off with his conqueror this time around. The selection has also had an ideal preparation. Conversely, Papineau has not.The latter was having his first start for 11 months when just under four-lengths fifth to Franklins Gardens in the Yorkshire Cup last month, which is in contrast to last year when he went into the Gold Cup having had an ideal preparation, winning both races with authority and going to Ascot fully tuned up. Papineau is a classy sort on his day, but Westerner has improved since last year's renewal of this Group One showpiece, and I believe that he is now the best stayer in Europe, not just France. The way the son of Danehill quickened clear in the final furlong to give Allez Olive 4lb and a five-length beating in a Group Two at Longchamp last month was spellbinding. The going was good that day, proving beyond doubt that the word 'soft' does not need to appear in the going description for Westerner to be fully effective. It will be surprising if the going is faster than good on the Knavesmire on Gold Cup day, so there are no concerns regarding the going, at this stage at least. Furthermore, York is a much sharper track than Ascot, which will play to the strengths of Westerner, who possesses a superior turn of foot to Papineau.That speed can also see Westerner home ahead of another danger, the admirable Vinnie Roe. The Dermot Weld-trained globetrotter, who was second in the Melbourne Cup in November, has had one crack at the Gold Cup, in which he finished a creditable second to Royal Rebel in 2002.Vinnie Roe looked as good as ever when landing a Listed race at Leopardstown on his seasonal reappearance last month. But what concerns me is the two-and-a-half-mile trip of the Gold Cup, as most of the seven-year-old's winning form - including the last four renewals of the Irish St Leger - has been achieved over 14 furlongs. It may just be that he is not as effective over farther, a theory backed up by the statistics: he has only won one of his four starts over trips beyond 14 furlongs. He could only manage fourth place behind Westerner in the two-mile Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger) at Longchamp in October, and there's no reason to believe he should reverse the placings this time.Mr Dinos may not be as good as he was, so outside of the big three, Papineau's stable companion Fight Your Corner and, at a nice price, Percussionist may be each-way alternatives. Betting verdict: 2pts win Westerner @ 11/4 (VCBet, Ladbrokes)