Gordon Brown to bank on 2009 election?

If the tabloid press are to be believed Gordon Brown will call a General Election inside a year with the most likely date June 2008. A massive hint came this week with the announcement that Labour party rising star Dougie Alexander will be the new General Election Coordinator. A new poll over the weekend gave Labour its first lead over the Tories in months. They are on 39 points, the Tories on 36 and the Lib Dems trailing on 15. The Ipsos MORI survey showed voters see Mr Brown as a far more capable PM than Mr Cameron. It is reasonable to see why an outgoing Chancellor would want to call an early election given also the Tories have yet to set out their policies for government. Most observers had initially expected an election in June 2009, giving him two clear years in charge. The odds would suggest 2008 is the more likely year with 5/4 currently on offer from Ladbrokes, although the 2/1 for 2009 looks a far more enticing offer. Commenting on the Poll, Sir Robert Worcester made some fascinating observations, not least that Brown is a very cautious man and won't rush to the polls on the back of a short-term bounce. It just wouldn't make sense for someone who has waited the best part of a decade to become PM to take a chance on an early election. Judging by some of the public's messages on Sky News and Radio 5, there are a fair few disgruntled Labour voters who are not happy with a new face heading the government, and most likely wouldn't be lending their support to Brown and co. A couple of the years at the helm would probably see those complaints die down. One comment made by Sir Robert Worcester though makes June 2009 a banker bet: For every 3 points above the 56% expected turnout (up to 76%), Labour would benefit by 1% point. That could mean extra 15-20 seats. June 4 was the date identified because on that day the European Parliament elections are being held, while the local elections could be delayed a month to this date. Throw in a General Election and the chances of a very high turnout climb significantly. It may also be worth mentioning there won't be a major football tournament in 2009 unlike in 2008 when hopefully the majority of the UK will be dreaming of John Terry leading England to Euro glory. We may have to wait a while for the profits, but a sizeable investment on June 2009 should pay handsome dividends.