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Grand National 2007 Tips and betting preview

Now that the dust has settled from the Cheltenham Festival, all roads lead to Aintree on April 14 when the annual spectacular that is the Grand National takes centre stage. Despite the fact that the fences have been modified in recent years, making them easier to negotiate, this four-and-a-half mile marathon has lost none of its lustre. Indeed, the Grand National still has real X Factor, and is still the race that everyone associated with racehorses wants to win, be it owners, trainers, jockeys, lads and lasses - and even the stable cat! And it's also the race that has the necessary allure to capture the imagination of even the most ad hoc of punters. Having come up with the last two winners - Numbersixvalverde last year and Hedgehunter in 2005 - I am approaching this year's renewal with relish. In fact, undeterred by the realisation that I could end up with copious amounts of egg on my face given what a calamitous event the Grand National can be, I am feeling pretty confident of completing a hat-trick. Obviously, luck is needed, but tactical nous on the part of the riders is equally important. The amount of ground a jockey can save by encouraging his or her mount to jump the Canal Turn at a perpendicular angle, for example, is priceless. Of course, going the shortest way - i.e. the inside - comes with risks, as the likelihood of being involved in a pile-up is far greater. Conversely, those steering a wide route forfeit yardage, but avoid carnage. But four and a half miles is a long way and, if jockeys box clever, it's possible to get the best of both worlds. That is to take a wider course for the first part of the race before making a beeline for the rail in the latter stages when the congestion has invariably dissipated. As I did last year, I am going to opt for two horses. However, the main selection is Point Barrow, who looks nailed on to go mighty close and rates an outstanding bet at 12/1 with Betfred. There are so many factors which make Pat Hughes' charge appealing. He has the right credentials - and, for those that sympathise, the stats augur well for his prospects too. Five of the last ten winners have been Irish raiders, nine-year-olds have the best recent record winning four renewals in the last decade, while six winners in the same period carried between 10st 7lb and 11st 1lb. Point Barrow is trained in the Emerald Isle, is aged nine and has a decent racing weight of 10st 12lb. As such, the selection certainly has the right profile. An interesting point to note is that two winners since 1999 - Bobbyjo in '99 and Numbersixvalverde last year - landed the Irish equivalent of this race the season before. Sure enough, Point Barrow prevailed in that three-mile, five-furlong heat at Fairyhouse last term, so the omens look good from a statistical point of view. However, as we are all well aware, such data is rendered inconsequential if a horse isn't made of the right stuff - there are certain ingredients which form an essential part of the recipe required to serve up a Grand National winner. Needless to say, an élan for jumping is paramount. Stamina is, of course, crucial - a National candidate has to stay longer than the mother-in-law. Add to those attributes the ability to act on genuine good ground - such underfoot conditions usually prevail at the Merseyside venue during the National meeting - and a hint of class. Mix all of these together and you have yourself a potential Grand National winner. Point Barrow ticks all of these boxes, plus he's progressive, and has had an ideal perfect preparation. Bon appétit. I strongly believe Point Barrow will win, but owing to the fact that 40 equine athletes will be lining up and, with the inevitable fallers and the risk of being brought down or impeded during the race, it's wise to spread the financial risk somewhat. With this in mind, I am going to have an each-way saver on Ossmoses. Admittedly, his profile isn't as compelling as Point Barrow's from a stats perspective - and all his best performances have come when there's been plenty of juice in the ground. But at 20/1, also with Betfred, I am happy to take a risk on Don Forster's charge as he has so much going for him otherwise: the grey jumps like a stag, boasts ample stamina reserves and possesses a real engine. Ossmoses generally comes to the boil at around this time of the year and the form of his victory in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock last season brings him firmly into the reckoning. He has few miles on the clock for a 10-year-old and will be spot-on for this gruelling assignment following a cracking effort over hurdles at Ayr last time out. Ante-post favourite Dun Doire is entitled to considerable respect. The fact that he fell at The Chair in the Becher Chase over this course in November needn't be a concern, as he was hampered, which caused him to come to grief and he is generally a pretty safe conveyance. What does concern me, though, is his propensity to post a below-par display every now and then. Ultimately, he has the ability to make a bold bid, but his inconsistency is off-putting. Eurotrek goes well fresh and Paul Nicholls tucked him away following his excellent performance in winning the Becher. He is versatile with regard to ground and shapes as though he has a good chance of getting the trip. None will be fresher than Eurotrek on April 14, but I just wonder whether this fragile sort will have enough fire in his belly when faces with a battle. Naturally, Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter are horses I hold in high esteem, and it's not hard to envisage both making a good fist of their respective attempts to land a second Grand National. But the latter will find life tough under top weight, as he did when beaten six lengths in last year's running. Numbersix will be bang there, although I reckon he'll struggle to concede 5lb to Point Barrow. The likes of L'ami, Joes Edge and Idle Talk all bring high-class form to the table, and that trio all enter the equation as having sound each-way claims. Billyvoddan's effort in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival suggests that he's well-handicapped, so a good showing from him wouldn't surprise. And Longshanks and Liberthine are also worthy of note. Verdict 2pts Point Barrow @ 12/1 (VCBet)1pts Ossmoses each-way, 1/4 odds places 1,2,3,4 @ 20/1 (VCBet)

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