Grand National Betting Analysis

I know it may seem like we say this every year, but this year's Grand National, run at Aintree on Saturday (3.45), really does look like one of the most open renewals of recent times. Looking at the statistics, it's interesting to note the way things have changed in the Grand National, or rather the way horses are prepared for the race. During the 80s, through to the mid-90s, horses ran in the National on the back of intensive campaigns throughout the season, whereas these days the planning and preparation is more intricate, with trainer's opting to run their charges over hurdles until the weights are published, then reverting to fences with the objective of their contenders going to post 'well-in'.This is reflected by the average ratings of top-weights in the four-mile-four-furlong marathon, which have dropped significantly over the last decade or so. For instance, the highest rating held by a runner in the last five years, thus carrying top-weight of 11st 12lb, was 158 - Behrajan in 2003 and Marlborough in 2002. Compare this to the mid-90's: Rough Quest landed the 1996 renewal off a mark of 152, yet carried just 10st 7lb; Royal Athlete scored in 1995 rated 155, carrying 10-6; and Miininehoma prevailed in 1994 off 153, with just 10st 8lb to shoulder.Last year's top weight Le Coudray possesses a relatively modest rating of 155 (he carried top weight off the same mark this year) suggesting that either the overall standard of runners has curtailed, or that it's purely the preparation style of the average contender that's changed.Personally, I think it's a bit of both, but there are two horses that could be a cut-above their current ratings, thus falling into the aforementioned target category of the 'well-in' runner, namely Take The Stand and Hedgehunter. Although Take The Stand is potentially the best treated horse in the race having finished second to Kicking King in the Gold Cup, I would treat that form with a degree of caution because the race in question was hardly a vintage renewal and, while I wouldn't want to appear to be detracting from the merit of those that participated, I reckon that Take The Stand was flattered considerably by the mere fact that he finished runner up in a Gold Cup. Perhaps even more crucial is his propensity to make mistakes (he has failed to complete in two of his last four starts) so there must be a major doubt that he will be equipped to put in a clear round on the National course at Aintree.In contrast, Hedgehunter demonstrated his élan for jumping fences in this last year when jumping well in the lead before falling at the last when booked to at least finish in the money. Ok, he did actually fall, but that mishap was due to tiredness, not sloppy jumping. Don't forget, he was still comparatively lightly raced at that stage and was just eight-years-old (only one horse in the last decade, Bindaree in 2002, has won the race aged eight or younger) so, with another year under his belt, he will be a more experienced, stronger horse.Indeed, the handicapper cited that he would have bumped Hedgehunter up the ratings quite significantly had he re-assessed the Willie Mullins-trained runner after he beat the classy Pizarro in the Bobbyjo chase at Fairyhouse in February.Hedgehunter's prominent style of racing will be an asset in this contest, as he will avoid the carnage in behind caused by horses falling, and in turn bringing down other runners. In addition, and this is not in any way a negative reflection of David Casey's ability as a jockey, it's a real bonus to learn that Ruby Walsh will be in the saddle on April 9, and at 9-1 the nine-year-old looks worth a decent wager.While I am confident about Hedgehunter's claims, I'd also recommend a couple of small each-way savers on Innox and Jakari.The former looked much improved when slamming some good yardsticks by upwards of nine-lengths at Sandown in February, and the 33-1 on offer with Coral makes plenty of appeal.Jakari is extremely tempting at 50-1, a price available at Sporting Bet.The Henry Daly-trained charge, who is set to carry around 10st 10lb, shaped really well on what was just his second start of the season when a running-on fifth behind Kelami in the William Hill Trophy Handicap at Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month where he shaped as though a marathon trip like that which he will encounter on Saturday will be right up his street.Admittedly, Jakari is just eight-years-old, and I don't want to sound like contradictory, but his experience over fences belies his age, and he's a safe jumper, who like Hedgehunter tends to race prominently, so one would be hopeful that he would put in a clear round. If he does, there's a strong chance that he'll hit the frame.Despite the fact that Amberleigh House's preparation has been geared up around this race, I cannot envisage him repeating last year's victory in this race, while last year's runner-up Clan Royal hails from the Jonjo O'Neill yard which has been beset with a virus for much of the season and while he commands respect on account of his proven effectiveness on this course, I think he makes for a risky proposition.Forest Gunner has won on the National course and is another that likes to race prominently so is hard to ignore. However, stamina is, in my opinion, a real concern where he's concerned, a remark which also applies to Joly Bey and Kelami.Last year's third Lord Atterbury and Strong Resolve, who was second in this season's Welsh National, are worthy of consideration, but my advice is to side with Hedgehunter, while retaining a monetary interest in the exploits of Innox and Jakari.