Guide to Betting on the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (October 1st)

First run on October 3rd 1920, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is generally considered to be the world's greatest horserace. The first ever winner of the Group 1 contest was Comrade, who picked up FF150,000, a staggering amount at that point. But how times change. The 85th running of the Arc on Sunday October 1, currently known as the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Lucien Barrière, offers total prize money of 1.8million euros including in excess of 1million euros to the winner, providing the showpiece to a weekend of high class racing at Longchamp in Paris. French handler Andre Fabre has an outstanding record in the race having won five of the last 14 renewals, with Subotica (1992), Carnegie (1994), Peintre Celebre (1997), Sagamix (1998) and Hurricane Run last year. At the time of writing, Fabre trained three of the first four in the betting, a market which is generally headed by reigning champion Hurricane Run, who was narrowly outpointed by stablemate and second favourite Shirocco, winner of last season's Breeders' Cup Turf. One of the real features of this year's race is the likely presence of Japanese wonder horse Deep Impact, who has suffered defeat in just one of his 11 career starts. The four-year-old is generally a 4/1 chance to prevail. Tap Dance City carried high hopes for the east but disappointed when 17th behind Bago in the penultimate renewal, but El Condor Pasa made a bold bid from the front in 1999 only to find the mighty Montjeu's turn of foot too hot to contain close home. Second remains the best placing a Japanese raider has managed in this prestigious contest. Fillies and mares do not have a particularly good record in the Arc with Urban Sea in 1993 being the only heroine for the fairer sex in this race in recent times. This year the equine females are likely to be represented by multiple Oaks winner Alexandrova, a top-priced 12/1, and cosy Prix Vermeille victor Mandesha, who is available at 16s. Eight of the last ten winners have been three-year-olds, all of which either won or were placed in the Prix Niel, one of three recognised Arc trials which take place at Longchamp three weeks before the big race itself. Here's an analysis of the leading contenders: HURRICANE RUN (A Fabre)The son of Montjeu will bid to do what his sire failed to do in 2000 and become the seventh horse to win two Arcs. The four-year-old produced a spellbinding turn of foot to come from virtually last turning for home to win this race last year, arguably with a bit left up his sleeve. There will be plenty willing to oppose the colt, as he hasn't been particularly impressive in what he has done this season so far - he was surprisingly turned over when long odds-on for the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, was made to fight tooth and nail in the King George, and was outpointed by stablemate Shirocco in the Prix Foy. However, his preparation will no doubt be fine tuned with this race in mind and, if the ground comes up on the easy side of good, he's sure to prove hard to beat. SHIROCCO (A Fabre)Ex-German-trained performer and winner of the 2004 Italian Derby who was fourth behind Hurricane Run in this race last year. Capped excellent first campaign in the care of Fabre when capturing the Breeders' Cup Turf at Belmont Park at the end of October and seemingly improved again this term, beating Ouija Board in the Coronation Cup before getting the better of Hurricane Run and Pride in the Prix Foy. Like Hurricane Run, he will be suited by give underfoot and, looking at it objectively, he's probably the one to beat, although it's probably not advisable to read too much into the form of the Prix Foy. Which jockey will partner the five-year-old is uncertain at the time of writing with the Aga Khan able to claim Cristophe Soumillon should he supplement Mandesha. DEEP IMPACT (Y Ikee)Hugely exciting Japanese raider whose sole defeat in 11 career starts came at the hands of compatriot Heart's Cry in the valuable Arima Kinen in Nakayama on Christmas Day. Many felt that the son of Sunday Silence was unlucky that day and he has duly scooted up in each of his subsequent three outings, demonstrating an incredible cursing speed and potent turn of foot on each occasion. His form is hard to weigh up, but Heart's Cry easily beat a number of European horses in Dubai earlier in the year, and was beaten just one length into third behind Hurricane Run in the King George VI Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot in July, a race many felt he would have won had he not been absent for four months prior. As such, Deep Impact would appear to be at the top of the tree. RAIL LINK (A Fabre)A progressive colt who has been brought along steadily by Fabre and followed up his impressive two-length beating of Red Rocks in the Grand Prix de Paris when getting the better of a duel with the Mick Channon-trained Youmzain in the Prix Niel, a race which has proved to be the most conclusive pointer to the Arc in modern times. On the face of it, he needs to improve a good deal to master the first three in the betting, but it's interesting nevertheless that Fabre is willing to pitch him against stablemates Hurricane Run and Shirocco, despite being comparatively inexperienced, therefore he merits plenty of respect. He is usually partnered by Soumillon who, if he's not claimed for Mandesha, will probably ride Shirocco, so Richard Hughes might take the mount. ALEXANDROVA (A O'Brien)If the stats are to be trusted, Alexandrova faces a task akin to climbing Mount Everest if she's to win this - the only filly or mare to prevail in modern times was Urban Sea in 1993. Shawanda was sent off at 3/1 last season following bloodless victories in the Irish Oaks and the Prix Vermielle but she was put in her place and came home in sixth behind Hurricane Run. To her credit, though, Alexandrova looks a filly or enormous class and she could hardly have been more impressive in rattling up a hat-trick of Oaks, comprising of the English, Irish and Yorkshire versions. Kieren Fallon is likely to partner Hurricane Run so, should she taker chance, Mick Kinane could step into the breach. PRIDE (A de Royer-Dupre)One of the toughest and most consistent members of the fairer sex in training and, at the age of six, this daughter of 1997 Arc hero Peintre Celebre looks as good as ever. She has inherited her sire's trademark turn of foot, and put it to good use when upsetting Hurricane Run in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June. She was travelling best of all just over a furlong out but couldn't peg Shirocco and Hurricane Run back in the Prix Foy, but there are many that suspect she can beat that duo on Arc day. She stayed on to finish a creditable seventh in this last year and it seems fair to say that she has improved this term. The concern, however - the record of fillies and mares aside - is that she seems better suited to smaller fields, in more tactical races. SIR PERCY (M Tregoning)Last gasp winner of the Derby at Epsom in June and has been sidelined since but has been the subject of glowing reports from trainer Marcus Tregoning recently. The Derby form has worked out very well indeed with the third home, Dylan Thomas, going on to prove himself a colt of the highest order with victories in the Irish Derby and Champion Stakes. The son of Mark of Esteem will be bidding to emulate Sinndar (2000) and Lammtarra (1995), who are the two most recent Epsom Derby winners to land this prize in the same season. He seems to possess the necessary blend of speed and stamina to take a hand in an Arc and he won't mind if there's cut in the ground. However, his absence since his Derby win has to be cause for concern - he will need to be razor sharp to win this. SIXTIES ICON (J Noseda)St Leger winners don't generally run in Arcs, never mind win them, but no-one can begrudge Sixties Icon his place in the line up. On a strict interpretation of form, he must have as good a chance as Rail Link, both having beaten Red Rocks in similar fashion, albeit over different trips. This colt is bred in the purple being by a Derby winner, Galileo, and out of an Oaks winner, Love Divine. The way in which he travelled throughout and quickened at the end of a strong-run race over a mile and six furlongs when landing the St Leger was deeply impressive. It will be interesting to see whether Frankie Dettori, who has ridden him the last twice, partners him in the Arc, as the Italian has also been linked with Shirocco, should Cristophe Soumillon be claimed for Mandesha.