Guiness Premiership Betting Preview

The Premiership, this year sponsored by Guinness for the first time, just gets bigger every season, and as rugby continues to grow so does interest in the top tier of league rugby in England. Clubs are becoming profitable for the first time, and average attendances for Premiership games were at 10,000 last season, and set to rise. More great players have been lured to the division too, and with Worcester impressively surviving last term, there is no longer any surety in the relegation issue. Bristol came up from Division One, but will be confident of competing, especially with some fantastic squad additions.Mark Denney and Vaughan Going have both moved from French clubs, and Brian Lima is the other new name of note. The Samoan centre is known as the chiropractor due to his bone reassembling tackles and will draw crowds on his own. Survival is all they can play for though.On the final day of last season, any one of five clubs could have been relegated (with all six matches having repercussions involved), and such excitement could well be repeated. The salary cap means that squads can only develop at a certain rate, and this in turn puts them closer in terms off the players they can attract.Harlequins were the side to fall out last term, and few would have predicted that at the outset.We are concerned with the other end of the table in this article however, and the top of the regular season final table. The playoffs produce great drama, but we would not begin to predict how they will pan out, especially with four teams involved this time, rather than three. Although, if we were to speculate, Wasps would be our favourites. Ever since the playoffs were introduced in 2002, Wasps have become champions, although on none of these occasions have they topped the table at the end of the regular campaign.There are various schools of though as to why this may be, with the most recognised probably that they have remained match fit, whilst the other finalists have had an extra week of rest prior to the final. With an adapted format which means the top four now playing in semi finals, this discrepancy has been ironed out, so maybe the Londoners will adopt a different approach.They will have new direction, as Warren Gatland has quit for the pastures of home (New Zealand) and Ian McGeechan has taken over. No coach in the British Isles is more respected, and I include Sir Clive Woodward in that. Woodward lost face in his management of the Lions first team, whilst Geechs merely earned more accolades with his unbeaten midweekers.Missing Lawrence Dallaglio and Josh Lewsey until November will be a huge blow, as may the fact that Dallaglio has made himself available for international selection again. Last season he was committed solely to the cause of his club and his displays were mesmeric. In Eyoola Erinle they have a centre who we feel should rise to international selection this term, and there will inevitably be a whole host of Wasps in the autumn tests, and the Six Nations.Craig Dowd has been the corner stone of the pack for several seasons and has departed, as his fellow prop Will Green and super charged hooker Trevor Leota. Raphael Ibanez will make up for Leota, but in Rob Howley and Peter Richards, the Wycombe based side have also lost two good scrumhalves. An injury to Matt Dawson could leave them short in this area.We are not convinced that the squad has enough depth to cover these losses, and are perhaps only a couple of injuries away from mediocrity. Dawson is one, whilst Alex King and Mark Van Gisbergen are two others. At around 2/1 we are happy to avoid them, especially as they have never actually topped this market.Leicester were the other finalists last year, but have lost the very heartbeat of their team. Martin Johnson, Neil Back and John Wells have all left, and this leaves a gaping chasm. There is still a good deal of quality, but we expect these changes to take some time to get over, and this makes the 3/1 available holds little appeal to us.Players of the quality of Lewis Moody, Martin Corry, Ollie Smith, Julian white and Graham Rowntree will ensure a healthy portion of wins, but all will be absent when England are in action, and winning the league will be hugely difficult without their talismanic World Cup winners.These have been the top two teams for the past few years, and so if we do not fancy them to prosper, who can fill the void?Saracens are not new to pre season hype, and due to previous disappointments, many are inherently put off supporting them. However, in the past the expectation has been down to the recruitment of a whole host of players, mostly those who are past their best, and a large turnover of personnel during the summer in the search for a quick fix.This time it is different however. After beating Wasps in the curtain raiser last term, the season started poorly, culminating in the sacking of Rod Kafer as head coach. This was the turning point, as Steve Diamond took over and put his plan into place.As he had done at Sale, he based the team around forward domination and by the end of the campaign had the best packs in the land on their haunches, most notably Leicester and Gloucester, the beating of the latter getting them a place in the Heineken Cup. This set of forwards is excellent, with cover in all positions and Shane Byrne stepping in nicely for the departed Raphael Ibanez. Richard Hill my be out for the whole year, but with Taine Randell, Hugh Vyvyan, Alex Sanderson, David Seymour, Tom Ryder and even talk of the superb Marty Holah as flanker support, we see no weakness in this area.The biggest signing for the club though is Andy Farrell, the ex Great Britain rugby league captain who made a high profile switch of codes last spring. He looks set to play at centre, and whilst some of the intricacies will take some getting used to, the ball skills and running ability combined with a monstrous defence, should transfer perfectly across. Thomas Castaignede can provide the panache, and on the wing Tevita Vaikona was one of the discoveries of 2004. Ben Johnston also had a great finish to the last campaign and will be looking to add to his one international cap, and Kyran Bracken still does the business at number nine with Glen Jackson an excellent outside half. A reassuring part of Sarries this year is that they appear to have good back up in every position. For Bracken read Alan Dickens or Moses Rauluni, for Jackson read Mark Bartholomeusz or Nicky little, and for Johnston read Richard Haughton or Paul Bailey.They finished last season winning seven of eight matches, and were the form team going into the summer. There is a great mix within the squad. Young pretenders such as Seymour, Ryder and Richard Haughton, mid achievers desperate for more of the big time like Johnston and Dan Scarbrough, top class rugby league converts in Farrell and Vaikona, antipodean class through Jackson and Mark Barthomomeusz, and proven leaders in Vyvyan, Farrell, and Randell.Expectation is high, but Diamond has also recruited the British Lions defensive coach, Mike Ford to his team, and it is hard to find a weakness in the set up. The fans will turn up if the club is doing well, as at the end of last year, and we are confident this team can have a great campaign. Refreshingly the side with less player turnover that any other in the off season, Sarries can finally take the extra step towards the top of the table. They are 8/1 for the title, with an each way bet paying out at 1/5 of the odds for a top 3 finish.Farrell is the only player included in the England elite squad which also means that they should remain virtually complete in terms of non injured selection availability for most of the season. Although, if they play as well as we are suggesting, no doubt a few of their players will be called up.Northampton boast the second biggest fan base in the country, and following a poor campaign last year, have recruited heavily in an attempt to find the upper echelons of the league table once more. Carlos Spencer is the biggest name, and at his best the Kiwi can rip through defences like no other fly half in the world.However 17 players have also left the club, including Andrew Blowers, Paul Grayson and Corne Krige, and experience tells us that sides take time to gel. They are priced at 16/1 for this market.Moving to the West Country, and Bristol's promotion means the old trinity with Bath and Gloucester will be restored. Both of the latter will expect to be up in the playoffs, but at around 14/1 we are not confident enough to support either. We would give Glaws the edge, especially if Phil Vickery and Mike Tindall remain fit but can see both settling for the patchiness of fighting for the lower European qualifying positions.London Irish (100/1) should make another good fist of this season, with French flanker Olivier Magne another splendid addition to the Premiership. Newcastle (25/1) have been relatively quiet in the transfer market and much will depend on Jonny Wilkinson. Both are mid table teams though. Leeds (33/1) will also push for a top six finish, with Justin Marshall a wonderful recruit for the Powergen Cup champions.The only other club with a good shot at the top spot is Sale Sharks. Already an excellent team, Phillippe Saint-Andre has returned to his homeland in search of new players. This was an approach that worked well last season, with the two Sebastiens, Bruno and Chabal proving highly effective.Last year the Mancunians won the European Challenge Cup with ease (beating Pau 27-3 in the final), but were let down in the league when England convened. Losing Jason Robinson, Charlie Hodgson and Mark Cueto ripped their backline to shreds, not to mention Andrew Sheridan and Andy Titterall up front. Three successive defeats during the November international window, as well as three more during the Six Nations were suffered, and yet they still finished third.The goal kicking of Hodgson was an especially expensive sacrifice, and as such two men with adequate skills have been signed, with Mike Hercus moving to Wales. Valentin Courrent, and especially Daniel Larrecheu have been introduced with this in mind.Defence remains an issue for the free spirited Saint-Andre, but they have strengthened since making the top three last season, so feel that an each way bet at 8/1 is a sensible course of action as a secondary wager.