Heineken Cup Betting Preview for this weekend

Leinster are one of just two unbeaten teams left in the competition and are virtually guaranteed qualification for the quarter finals ahead of their trip to Bath on Saturday (Sky Sports, 13.00 GMT). There remains an incentive however, as to qualify with most points would put them through against a well placed runner up which should, in theory be an easier game, and it would also be at home.This is a tough outing though, especially against a highly motivated Bath side who may be seven points behind, but one of the two highest runners up berths well within their sights.Leinster had a big away game in the Celtic League last week and lost out to Munster in Cork by 13-19. This is one of three games since beating Bourgoin both home and away in rounds 3 and 4, with the other two being wins against Ulster and Cardiff.Malcolm O'Kelly return for this one in place of Ben Gissing and this is the only alteration to the team that played Munster. They have impressed this season and priced at 6/1 to go all the way, with just Toulouse and Leicester ahead on the betting lists.They are third in the Celtic League but away from home the top sides have tended to get the better of them. As well as the loss to Munster last week, the Dragons, the Ospreys and Llanelli Scarlets have all beaten them on their travels.For their part, Bath have failed to reach the heights of last season and perhaps the low point came in Round 3 of this competition when they suffered the rare indignity of a defeat in Italy, to Benetton-Treviso. They did avenge that loss at the Rec the following Saturday, but come into this game with two successive Zurich Premiership losses to their name.One of these came at home last week to a Saracens side that is improving, but is not in the same class as Leinster. The other was away at Sale.John Connolly has not been helped by injuries of late and last week Andrew Higgins, Jonathon Humphreys, Duncan Bell and Michael Lipman were all unavailable. There is also an issue surrounding the predicament of Mike Tindall who is yet to be issued a new contract and so cannot be certain where he will be playing his rugby next year.We were hoping the bookmakers were going to offer Leinster as the outsiders due to the home advantage factor, but they have decided to agree with our assessment and put them at 4/6. No bet stands out for this match, although it should provide fine entertainment.Later on Saturday, Newcastle have the pleasure of paying a visit to one of the most fearsome venues in European rugby, Stade Aime Giral where they take on Perpignan (Sky Sports, 15.00 GMT).Newcastle, with Leinster, are the other side to have won all four games in this competition, and now require just one win from two fixtures to guarantee progression. This is by far the tougher of the two with the Dragons visiting Kingston Park next week, but the squad has been geed up into focussing on winning in France by their coach Rob Andrew. He calls it the most important match in the history of the club.They have been in good form of late, and only once in six outings have they been beaten, by Saracens in the Powergen Cup.Jonny Wilkinson is integral to the performances of the Falcons, and for the first time since his latest lay off the World Cup winning fly half produced a genuine match winning display last week. He scored 20 points, including a last minute converted try to just beat Sale Sharks, by 30-29.Injury permitting, Newcastle fans can expect Wilko to start every game from now on in an effort to impress Andy Robinson with the Six Nations just a month away. He will have a new half back partner for this one with James Grindal replacing Hall Charlton, and at full back Joe Shaw fills the boots of the injured Dave Walder. The only other alteration to the side which beat Sale is in the second row where Luke Gross comes in for Andy Buist.The significance of the advantage felt at home by Perpignan is demonstrated by the way they have won all nine matches at their stadium this season. For them, two wins could be enough to reach the quarterfinals depending on other results, and other pools.They have been out of action since December 23rd and so will enter the match very fresh. This has got to be an advantage against the Falcons who have had a match every weekend since September 5th, including two since Christmas. ¼ ids the best price to be found about them winning, which equates to a handicap of -10 points. We feel this is a mark worth taking, but will incorporate it as part of a double on the last televised match taking place on Saturday.That is between Munster and the Ospreys (Sky Sports, 17.15 GMT). Home records do not come any better than that of Munster, who have never lost a Heineken Cup tie at Thomond Park. However, they were exposed by a depleted Harlequins side there in Round One, just winning through after the Londoners had been camped on their line for the final five minutes.A huge factor in this game is that Ronan O'Gara is unable to play, and the fly half will be badly missed. He is now well established as Ireland's premier number ten, and his all round ability makes him arguably the most important player in Alan Gaffney's team. Paul Burke replaces him.This is a genuine grudge match between the two top sides in the Celtic League, and will be the fourth time they have met this term. In this competition, Munster managed to win at the Gnoll by 20-18 in a bad tempered game, which eventually saw Ospreys wing Richard Mustoe banned for 12 weeks for stamping. The Welsh responded by citing Marcus Horan for alleged punching and racial abuse, a motion that riled the Irish, even if Horan was eventually found to be not guilty.In the league, home advantage has been key on both occasions, the most recent being another violent affair at Musgrave Park in Cork during December. 13-9 was the final score and Wales number eight Ryan Jones was sent off for stamping. Referee Chris Jones may well have his work cut out in this one, and Ospreys coach Lyn Jones only stoked the fire after the December game. He said "Munster are not God's gift to rugby, they do not hold any demons for us."He is able to include Sonny Parker and Stefan Terblanche in his back line after slight injury concerns and will travel to Ireland believing they can win. A victory would put them in a great position with Castres visiting them next week and 15/8 is quite tempting but we are reluctant to go against the Thomond Park record.However, without O'Gara playing the +6.5 point handicap does appeal, and works nicely into a 5/2 double on the Newcastle game.