Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase Betting Tips

The Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase at Newbury on November 25 is the leading pre-Christmas staying chase and invariably makes for a fascinating spectacle with some of the leading novices from the previous season taking on the more seasoned professionals. Star De Mohaison, last year's leading staying novice with victories at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals, heads the market following his impressive reappearance victory over timber at Cheltenham. However, his trainer, Paul Nicholls, has indicated that he's not a certain runner. The Ditcheat has cited that the five-year-old wouldn't want the ground too testing and also expressed a concern that he would be among the topweights. Indeed, with Our Vic almost certain to bypass this and go for the King George or the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, a 15lb rise in the weights is on the cards. Assuming Lacdoudal stands his ground then Philip Hobbs' charge would be lumbered with topweight. If Nicholls, who saddled Strong Flow to win this in 2003, were to leave both Cornish Rebel and Royal Auclair in the race, then Star De Mohaison would be allotted a weight of around 11st 8lb. It could be that Star De Mohaison, who is a top-priced 16/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March, is up to the task. However, he is not the biggest and I wouldn't be wanting to take too short a price about him carting so much led to victory in what looks set to be a highly competitive race. And it must be remembered that only two horses - Trabolgan last year and Suny Bay in '97 - have carried more than 11st to victory in this Grade 3 event since 1988. With the current spate of mild weather, it could be that ground won't be too much of an issue, but it could easily still end up riding on the slow side of good. Star De Mohaison acts under such conditions, but there's little doubt that he's a much better horse on genuine good ground. In any case, the better value to be had elsewhere and I recommend that punters latch onto a few at bigger prices, as this race is always good to going into with a small portfolio of antepost wagers. First and foremost, Evan Williams' State Of Play, an 8/1 chance with Blue Square, has to be high on any list. He has an ideal portfolio for this given that he's a second-season chaser, lightly-raced, handles cut in the ground with aplomb, at the right end of the handicap and jumps for fun. Furthermore, since the start of the season Williams had had his string in fine fettle and the vibes from his Cowbridge yard suggest that confidence is high ahead of State Of Play's tilt at this contest. The six-year-old looked progressive when landing a couple of minor novice chases and was then pitched in at the highest level in the Feltham Novices' Chase in which he didn't jump with his usual fluency and was well and truly cooked when stumbling badly at the second-last. State Of Play is best forgiven that run as it was clearly a simple case of a bad day at the office. He then proved as much in emphatic style when, sent off at 22/1 for a well-contested handicap at the Aintree Festival, he made virtually all of the running, putting his rivals to the sword and eventually bounded clear up the home straight to score by 16 lengths. As you might imagine, the handicapper clobbered him as a result, but he was value for a good deal more than the winning margin and the ground was plenty quick enough for him at the Merseyside track. That performance underlined the fact that he goes well fresh as he went into the race following almost four months off, another factor which will stand him in good stead on November 25. In my opinion State Of Play is much the most likely winner. But I feel that it's well worth having a couple of small savers on two at double figure prices, Juveigneur and Southern Vic, both of whom can be supported at 14/1 with Blue Square and William Hill respectively. The former failed to complete on four of his five starts last term which was surprising given that he's generally a safe enough conveyance. However, he will have derived much confidence from a spin over hurdles at Cheltenham recently when finishing a highly creditable third in a hot staying novices' hurdle. Nicky Henderson's charge, who will be bidding to provide the Seven Barrows handler with a second successive victory in this race following Trabolgan's win last year, travelled extremely well in that contest at Prestbury park and wasn't knocked about when it was clear that he wasn't going to match the front two for pace close home, although he stayed on and was beaten just over six lengths. That outing will have duly blown away the cobwebs and he is expected to go very well. Meanwhile, Irish raider Southern Vic started his campaign with victory over an inadequate trip of two mile at Naas last month and, providing that an appreciable amount of rain falls on Newbury terrain ahead of the race, he should give a very good account. Idle Talk made a thoroughly pleasing reappearance when giving My Will a real fight at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He should be in the mix, along with the Charlie Egerton-trained Mongermont and Turpin Green. Verdict: 2pts State Of Play @ 8/1 (Blue Square)0.50pts Juveigneur @ 14/1 (Blue Square)0.50pts Southern Vic @ 14/1 (William Hill)