HERMAN VAN ROMPUY ODDS-ON TO BE NAMED FIRST EU PRESIDENT
After much speculation and a whole lot of political posturing, we now seem to be closer than ever to the naming of the First European Union President. In fact, the odds have taken several decisive swings in the past few days and former favourite Tony Blair has now tumbled down the pecking order and his price looks to be lengthening.
Blair was previously priced as the favourite with odds of around 3.0, he is now trading at 5.0 with Ladbrokes, in a dead-heat for second place with Jan-Peter Balkenende. Jean-Claude Juncker has also seen his price climb and he is now available at an 8.0 margin to be named EU President.
The big favourite though is now Herman Van Rompuy, the Belgian Prime Minister. He has always been a strong contender, even since the betting market for this was actually announced, but he is now priced at odds-on with a 1.66 margin to be named next EU President. This price, and the gulf between him and the other candidates makes me confident that he is more or less a shoe-in to win the election.
It is interesting, and this has been pointed out by many political observers, that after decades of seeking unity between its member states, Europe is not going to appoint a high-profile charismatic leader, but seems to be skewing towards a cadre of studious technocrats like Van Rompuy and Juncker.
Many observers are also pointing to political players like Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, who are focused primarily on national domestic issues and would not want to deal with a charismatic and high-profile EU President minimizing any of their political capital.
Merkel and Gordon Brown remain in the running despite it looking more or less impossible for them to get elected. They are both priced at 101.0 Other notables include Paavo Lipponen and Vaira Vike-Freiberga at 11.0, Wolfgang Schussel at 13.0 and John Bruton at 21.0.