Horse Racing Betting: Paddy Power Gold Cup

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is usually one of the best handicap chases of the season but this time around it has a below-par feel to it. Some of the best talent has skipped the contest at Prestbury Park for one reason or another, not least ante-post favourite Don't Push It, who was withdrawn on Thursday and Abragante, who was also heavily fancied. As usual, there are a few trends to the big race that can help punters flush out some of the less likely candidates. However, they look less reliable than normal, purely because of the topsy-turvy nature of the line-up. The standout stat is that 14 of the last 17 winners have won at Cheltenham before. It is an idiosyncratic course, with a steep uphill finish and horses have needed to prove in the past that they are up to the significant challenge. There are eight who fit this description (Too Forward, Knowhere, Crozan, L'Antartique, Idole First, Copsale Lad, Palarshan and Vodka Bleu) but several of those look like coming up short. Copsale Lad is ten years old now and we haven't had one of such veteran status since 1975 when the relatively ancient Clear Cut scooted home in 1975. The favourite, Granit Jack is one I certainly would exercise caution on. Paul Nicholls' hotpot has yet to win a chase in Britain and although the French import was pretty useful in the provinces of France, he was over-hyped when running over hurdles here, and in my book he looks a place lay on the exchanges for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. One French import who does catch the eye however is Nicky Henderson's Crozan. Henderson has made no bones about how good he believes his charge to be and last season the seven-year-old was highly tried. He took part in races such as the Ryanair Chase and off level weights in the Melling Chase at Aintree against such beats as Monet's Garden and Our Vic. Back in handicap company, and on his favoured surface, he looks better placed and can run a huge race at 12/1 with Paddy Power. The Pipe stable has a formidable record in this race having won six of the last nine but last year's runner-up Vodka Bleu looks the one punters should zero in on. Timmy Murphy's mount has the air of 'been there and done that' and is a double-figure price to boot. It was an extraordinary performance for Vodka Bleu to run last year's handicap sensation Exotic Dancer to three lengths in last year's Paddy Power Gold Cup, purely because he was defying a 714-day absence. The eight-year-old has just 1lb more to carry this time around and if his 216-day break has freshened him up from last year's subsequently poor campaign, then he looks each-way value to the horse racing bettor. Ferdy Murphy's L'Antartique has been popular all week after his fluid victory 13 days ago in a three-runner pipe opener at Carlise. The winner of the Jewson handicap from Bob Hall, who re-opposes today, has never been the best jumper though and at around 4/1, he looks too short. Lastly, Idole First deserves a mention. A twice convincing winner at the Cheltenham Festival, Venetia Williams's eight-year-old has been allocated a decent weight and should go well at a track he clearly thrives on. Quite simply, this is a value-seekers paradise. The favourite, Granit Jack, simply looks too short, and those comfortable betting on the spreads and exchanges should give serious consideration to getting the favourite beaten. Those who are less comfortable with such practices should hunt around for some each-way value about a load of horses who have more than a squeak at glory. Verdict: 1pt E/W Vodka Bleu @ 9/1 (general); 1pt E/W Crozan @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)