Instincts say 14/1 is a safe bet

The John Smith's Cup at York is a difficult puzzle to solve, something which is made all the more tricky by the fact that the race is nearly two furlongs shorter than the trip over which its traditionally run, while the testing conditions are an imponderable for many of the 20-strong field. A recent fire on the Knavesmire has meant that no races can be run over further than 1m 208yds owing to work that is being carried out. The combination of the soft going and the likely frenetic pace should help those that need a stiffer stamina test to some extent, but York is a relatively sharp track and there are quite a few that will probably find things happening too quickly. Pevensey and Hitchcock, first and third respectively in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, are cases in point. That duo needed virtually every yard of the mile and a half trip in that contest, despite their being plenty of give underfoot. As such, I am pretty confident that a line can be drawn through the pair in question. Likely favourite Greek Well, who was the subject of an antepost plunge at the start of last season for the 2006 Derby before sustaining an injury, has a bit to prove to justify his lofty position in the market. The beautifully bred colt comes into the race in good form following back-to-back victories at Sandown, but this represents a step up in class for the four-year-old. Richard Fahey, who sent out Vintage Premium to win this in 2002, fields a quintet of runners headed by the unexposed Avoriaz. The trip and ground won't be an issue for him, but neither is it likely to inconvenience stablemate Smart Instinct, who rates a fair each-way punt at 14/1 with totesport to my mind, a price which looks pretty big considering the strength of his form. After shaping well behind the subsequent winner of a big handicap at Newmarket during the week, Shmookh, here in May, Smart Instinct caught the eye when staying on to finish fifth in the competitive Silver Bowl at Haydock, a race won by Group-class colt Tobosa. The son of Smart Strike was a bit outpaced in the early stages there, not looking entirely at home on the fast surface, so he deserves plenty of credit for being beaten less than four lengths. The gelding is the only three-year-old in the line-up, but members of the Classic generation have claimed this valuable prize three times during the last 10 years, so his age needn't debar a bold show. In a race full of ifs and buts, Smart Instinct looks a fair bet given that there is probably more to come from him over this trip. All of Fahey's runners have claims of sorts. Fortunate Isle is in good form and relishes soft ground, a remark which also applies to Charlie Tokyo, while Flying Clarets has an excellent record at this course, albeit, unlike her stable companions, she seems better suited to a quicker surface. Hassaad would be a leading player but for the ground - he was pulled out of a race last month on account of soft going, so he may not even go to post. Emirates Skyline merits respect from the Godolphin camp. The lightly-raced four-year-old is tried in a first-time visor and, if it has the desired effect, he'll be a danger to all. Flipando appears to be in the grip of the handicapper now, which may also be true of Luberon. That said, I would not rule out a decent showing from the latter at a huge price, as front-runners are hard to peg back on this course and he has a good deal of ability when in the mood. Verdict: 1pt Smart Instinct @ 14/1 (Totesport)