Irish 200 Guineas Preview

I was left with egg on my face when George Washington readily outpointed his rivals in the Stan James 2000 Guineas at Newmarket at the beginning of this month and the son of Danehill is bidding to give Aidan O'Brien his fifth win in the Boylesport-sponsored Irish equivalent at The Curragh on Saturday, for which Paddy Power make him the 1/3 favourite. I am aware of how easy it is to talk yourself into opposing an odds-on favourite in a race like this because, as punters and racing enthusiasts, we like to have a financial interest in races like this to add a bit of spice to the excitement. Indeed, anyone that witnessed the way Georgie boy tore the field to pieces at Newmarket will probably think that I'm a glutton for punishment or, moreover, that I have money to burn when I say that I'm going to oppose him this weekend. But I think there's grounds to do so. The term 'grounds to do so' is pretty apt, because it's underfoot conditions which have swayed me away from George Washington. At the time of writing, the going at The Curragh, where the Guineas will take place on Saturday, is soft, heavy in places, with further rain forecast during the week. Although it's projected that the going will dry out a tad, the likelihood is that it'll be good to soft, soft in places, or straight soft - conditions which gorgeous George has never encountered. George Washington has never raced on a surface worse than good, and the surface at Newmarket was pretty quick. As such, while it's far from impossible that he'll be just as effective under more testing conditions, there's just as strong a chance that he won't. Furthermore, only one horse in the last decade - O'Brien's Rock of Gibraltar in 2002 - has won the English equivalent en route to landing this contest and while a number of winners during that period have sidestepped this with a view to the Derby at Epsom, this is still a pretty compelling stat. Looking at the overall equation - the ground being the most pertinent factor - I believe that the Kevin Prendergast-trained Decado, 5/2 second favourite with Paddy Power, is the one to be on. In total contrast to George Washington, Decado absolutely relishes cut in the ground and the son of Danehill Dancer is very much an unexposed, improving sort, who, as they say in racing, 'could be anything'. A winner of both of his races so far this season, Decado laughed at subsequent scorer Queen Cleopatra in a Listed race under relatively testing conditions over seven furlongs at this track, before staying on strongly to beat Sir Xaar by three and a half lengths in a Group 3 race over the same course and distance on May 1. In the latter race, the selection wasn't quite as impressive as he was on his seasonal reappearance, but this was probably due to the slightly quicker ground, which was officially described as good to yielding. This appears a logical explanation because, upon reviewing the footage of his penultimate victory, he travelled more kindly with plenty of give underfoot, as his action suggests he might. Although unraced beyond seven furlongs, Decado shapes as though this step up to a mile will bring about improvement and, with conditions set to be spot on for him, I reckon he'll lower the colours of the jolly. O'Brien has nine of the nineteen entries left in at the time of writing (five-day declaration stage). Among them is the French 2000 guineas first and second, Aussie Rules and Marcus Andronicus, in addition to Hurricane Cat, who was beaten over four lengths into third behind Decado here last time out. Hurricane Cat would certainly be the most interesting of that trio, as he relishes give in the ground and was clearly crying out for farther judged on the way he stayed on to finish third in that Group 3 race here, although I'd be surprised if he came on enough for that outing to beat Decado. Araafa, a creditable fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, Tell and Yasoodd fly the flag for England. They are all decent colts in their own right and all have each-way prospects in a race that is bound to appeal to the each-way thieves. But ultimately none of that trio look like genuine Group 1 horses. Verdict - 1pt Decado @ 5/2 (Paddy Power)