Irish Derby Betting Analysis

July 2. Make a note of that date. If you haven't got one already, open a William Hill account. Work out how much money you can tie up until the afternoon of the date in question. Then get that money on Hala Bek, who is currently 2/1, but will be more like an even money shot when going to post for the Budweiser Irish Derby at The Curragh. Make no mistake, this is a bet that represents buying money. Hala Bek was the moral winner of the Vodafone Derby at Epson on June 3, and was much the best horse in the race. Despite swerving right and almost unseating jockey Philip Robinson 100 yards out, the son of Halling ran on again and, amazingly, was beaten just a neck into fourth at the line. Hala Bek lost a good three lengths when veering at that crucial stage, so logic suggests that he would have ran out a relatively cosy winner, possibly scoring by two or two and a half lengths, had that incident not occurred. Indeed, Michael Jarvis' charge was really hitting top gear and just about to hit the front when something, possibly the roar of the crowd, spooked him. Hala Bek was having just his second career start at Epsom so perhaps it was his inexperience that caused him to react the way he did. Personally, though, I think it was just a freak incident, as the Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum-owned didn't seem at all phased by the magnitude of the occasion during the preliminaries. Thinking about it, for a horse that had just raced in public once before when winning a Newbury maiden, albeit a very decent one, and taking into account that he endured an interrupted preparation in the build up to this race due to a minor injury, the fact that he ran such a cracking race, and was desperately unlucky not to have won, suggests to me that he could be a brilliant colt in the making. And I mean brilliant. Indeed, Hala Bek possesses stamina, a high cruising speed, and the kind of acceleration that is synonymous with the very best middle distance horses of recent times. I reckon that he will go onto become just that, one of the middle distance horses of recent times. BEK It would be wrong to take too much away from eventual winner Sir Percy because, although he was essentially a fortuitous winner, it has to be said that he showed an exemplary attitude to run on so strongly having looked cooked three furlongs out. But Hala Bek is purely and simply the better horse and, if Marcus Tregoning's charge also lines up at The Curragh, Hala Bek will prove this by beating him fair and square. However, there is a strong word that Sir Percy's connections intend to sidestep the Irish Derby and instead go for the Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown on July 8. I have priced the race up without Sir Percy and make Hala Bek an even money chance. As such, if Sir Percy doesn't take him on in Ireland, and it's highly likely that he won't, then the 2/1 currently on offer about Hala Bek will be like veritable gold dust! The Epsom second and third, Dragon Dancer and Dylan Thomas, could well head to The Curragh. Both are improving colts that stay the mile and a half trip well. But having watched countless re-runs of the Derby, it's virtually impossible to envisage either of that duo beating Hala Bek all things being equal, especially as this more conventional track looks sure to suit Hala Bek much better than Epsom where the adverse camber in the home straight can be tantamount to a nightmare for an inexperienced horse. Papal Bull ran better than his finishing position suggests in the Derby as he was hampered when running on three furlongs out. He has each-way claims, while French Derby hero Darsi will find this a lot tougher compared to when scoring at Chantilly and a minor placing is the best he can hope for. Betting verdict - 5pts Hala Bek @ 2/1 (William Hill)