Irish Oaks Race Betting Preview

Alexandrova will on Sunday be bidding to become the third filly in the last decade to complete the big double when she sets out to add the Darley Irish Oaks to her victory in the English equivalent. Somewhat surprisingly, she will also be bidding to give Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O'Brien his first winner in this mile and a half contest. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the daughter of Sadler's Wells is long odds-on to prevail - William Hill go a top-priced 1/2 at the time of writing - following her emphatic victory at Epsom last time when careering away to beat Rising Cross by six lengths with Short Skirt back in third. Visually impressive though that victory was, I'm really not convinced that Alexandrova is a good thing at The Curragh this weekend. Of course, she is very much the one to beat, especially given that she's open to further improvement having had just six career starts to date. However, the fact that Rising Cross was second at Epsom suggests to me that the lion's share of Alexandrova's key rivals at Epsom didn't handle the idiosyncratic nature of the track or, purely and simply, failed to run their race. No disrespect to the John Best-trained Rising Cross, as their are few more admirable and consistent horses in training. But the fact that she was beaten in two Listed heats on the All Weather earlier in the season clearly indicates that her limitations have been exposed at a much lower level than that of a Group 1 Classic. I don't mean to entirely crib the form of O'Brien's filly, as all she could do was win the race, and she won it with a great deal of authority and ease, probably value for a good deal more than the bare winning margin. Sometimes when there's an odds-on jolly in a race that looks outstanding, it's best to swerve the race from a betting perspective. However, I don't personally believe that Alexandrova is a case in point. My advice is to play, and have an interest in Scottish Stage, a 6/1 chance with William Hill, who hails from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, a stable that has won this race twice in recent years - Petrushka (2000) and Pure Grain (1995). The daughter os Selkirk has a bit to find on what she has shown thus far if she's to land this contest, make no mistake. She is, however, clearly going the right way and ran a fine race in defeat when beaten a neck by Mont Etoile in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot when having just her fourth outing. Scottish Stage took a while to hit top gear there - as she did when winning on her reappearance at Newbury in a Listed event previously - but I am of the opinion that she will be seen to better effect at The Curragh where the longer straight will play to her strengths and she can duly reverse the placings with Willie Haggas' Mont Etoile. The selection is bred for stamina - she's from the family of St Leger heroine Sun Princess - so the fact that there wasn't a particularly strong pace on offer in that Group 2 contest counted against her, as did the good to firm going. With the going projected to be genuine good ground on Sunday - and with O'Brien set to pitch in a pacemaker to ensure that a strong end-to-end gallop ensues - this race will represent an altogether more suitable test for Scottish Stage, and she rates a very good alternative to Alexandrova. It's interesting that Stoute is also pitching Short SKirt in against Alexandrova again after she was beaten over seven lengths into third behind that rival at Epsom. The Diktat filly didn't look too comfortable on the camber in the home straight at Epsom, and chances are she'll get a lot closer to Alexandrova on this more conventional track. On the downside, Short Skirt appears to relish plenty of give in the ground. It was pretty testing when she beat the subsequent Oaks winner on her penultimate start in the Musidora at York in May, as it was when she won her maiden at Newmarket last year. If appreciable rain were to fall ahead of Sunday's race, she would come right into the equation but otherwise a minor placing looks on the cards. Mont Etoile is clearly progressing and shouldn't be underestimated. She didn't enjoy the best of runs when coming form off the pace to land the Ribblesdale Stakes, and this daughter of Montjeu clearly has ability to match her ample stamina reserve. My guess, though, is that Scottish Stage will improve past her, especially with a bit more give underfoot. French Oaks heroine Confidential Lady is a tough, reliable filly who has more than a hint of class about her. She chased home Speciosa in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket before disappointing in the Irish equivalent when seemingly going off too quickly in front. She was ridden with more restraint over a mile and a quarter when driven out to beat Germance by a length and a half at Chantilly in the Prix de Diane Hermes, and is clearly a major player here on that evidence. But while she is by Singspiel, her overall pedigree raises a big question mark with regard to her stamina - she is out of a mare who is by top sprinter Dayjur - and I am of the opinion that the mile and a half of trip of this contest is likely to stretch her. Verdict - 1pt Scottish Stage @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)