John Smith Stakes Tips

Walter Swinburn has enjoyed a fruitful first season as a trainer since taking over the reigns from his father-in-law, Peter Harris, and the Aldbury handler can land the valuable John Smith's Stakes with Pinpoint at Newbury on Saturday. The son of Pivotal, who is a top-priced 10/1 with William Hill at the time of writing, goes into this race fresh having been off the course for the best part of three months, as connections have been keen to hold out for a bit of cut in the ground. Pinpoint ran two cracking races at Ascot earlier in the season, not beaten far in two of the most competitive handicaps of the season, the Victoria Cup and the Royal Hunt Cup. On each occasion, the going was riding too fast for the selection, who will relish the prevailing decent surface at Newbury. Having had just four career starts, Pinpoint is open to a good deal of improvement and, although he has yet to race over farther than a mile, he has given every indication in his races that this ten-furlong trip will be well within his compass. In last year's renewal of this contest, it paid to be drawn high, another factor which augurs well for Pinpoint, who is well-berthed in stall 16 and, having won the John Smith's Cup at York earlier this season with Fairmile, Swinburn has a line through many of these rivals. Strangely for a race like this, it's hard to envisage this race will run at a frenetic pace as only Humungous is an obvious candidate to go off in front. If the gallop isn't generous, the likes of Bravo Maestro, Crime Scene and Formal Decree will be at a distinct disadvantage, while such a scenario would also hinder the hard-pulling Chantaco. Pearly King, who landed a decent handicap over course and distance earlier in the season, will be racing off a 3lb higher mark in future and has to be respected. Well drawn in stall 15, Sir Michael Stoute's charge rates a live danger to the selection, but he lacks a real turn of foot, and this factor sways the balance in the favour of Pinpoint, who is a strong-finisher. Charlie Cool is progressive and merits respect, although he does seem to be at his best on a fast surface, a remark which also applies to Dansili Dancer. The latter has won on genuine good ground before, but his improvement this term has coincided with tackling top of the ground and, off a mark 5lb higher than for his last win, the four-year-old may find at least one or too good this time. At a bigger price Blue Bajan shouldn't be dismissed. The Andrew Turnell-trained gelding would need to better he's shown anything by some way just to hit the frame in a race of this nature, but he is a tough and consistent sort, and it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him go well. Verdict - 1pt Pinpoint @ 10/1 (William Hill)