Ladbrokes Heritage Handicap Betting Tips (Saturday)

Walter Swinburn has enjoyed a fine first season in charge at the Aldbury-based stables in Hertfordshire, taking over as trainer from his father-in-law, Peter Harris. In the shape of progressive three-year-old Stotsfold, Swinburn has an excellent candidate for the ladbrokes.com Heritage Handicap at Ascot on Saturday. However, the son of Barathea has demonstrated a distinct appreciation of tight turning tracks - his victories have come at Chester, Kempton and Lingfield - and the combination of stepping up in trip on a more galloping track, and on going likely to be softer than anything he has encountered so far, gives cause for concern. On breeding, neither the ground nor the trip should be a problem, and this step to a mile and a half probably won't be an issue. But underfoot conditions could well be a problem, as Stotsfold failed to produce his best on the only occasion that he has tackled going softer than good. Indeed, there's always a chance that ease in the ground will blunt a horse's speed, and this looked the case in the race in question at Newbury in August when Stotsfold failed to produce the turn of foot he has demonstrated to such good effect on the all-weather and on top of the ground. When scoring at Chester last time out, Walter Swinburn's charge won with a great deal of authority, but the one that caught my eye in that race was Purple Moon, who became outpaced at a crucial stage on the Roodee before staying on well to finish three and a half lengths third. The ten-furlong trip on fast going at Chester simply didn't provide a sufficient test of stamina for this beautifully bred son of Galileo and, with conditions likely to be far more suitable for the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt on Saturday, the 14/1 on offer with Blue Square looks too good to miss. The selection had failed to fire on his two starts prior to his outing at Chester, but that was largely due to the fact that he was getting stirred up during race preliminaries and was pulling hard during the races themselves. He looked much more relaxed last time and shaped as though his turn was near. Peppertree Lane, who shares joint favouritism with Stotsfold at the time of writing, lost no caste in defeat when going down by under half-a-length when third to Pevensey and Group Captain over this course and distance in the totesport 0800 221 221 Stakes a fortnight ago. Mark Johnston's charge will probably be made more use of on this occasion by Kevin Darley, who elected to track the leaders rather than force the issue on that occasion. He could well reverse the placings with the two that finished in front that day. That said, Pevensey showed a willing attitude to come from off the pace to score, and he could go close again, but Group Captain doesn't always find a great deal when the chips are down and one suspects that the handicapper will need to relent before he is able to get his head in front in a race like this again. Balanced Budget, Futun and recent Newmarket winner Mikao all have claims, although connections of the first-named will be hoping that the ground dries out as the three-year-old doesn't appear to be at home when conditions are testing. Verdict - 1pt Purple Moon @ 14/1 (Blue Square)