Ladbrokes Portland at York (9th September)

Hogmaneigh merits the utmost respect in the Ladbrokes Portland at York on Saturday as he is an unexposed, progressive sprinter taking on a bunch of largely exposed performers. However, although his rivals have less scope, that doesn't mean they're not good. And crucially, virtually every horse in the field for Saturday's race has experience of running in these big field handicaps, whereas Hogmaneigh doesn't. Not only that, but Hogmaneigh, who is a top-priced 13/2 with Hills for this race at the time of writing, needed every yard of the stiff five furlongs at Sandown to get on top last time out, and I am unsure whether he will prove quite as effective over the minimum trip on this sharp course. The pace in this race is likely to be stronger which will help, while he seems versatile with regard to underfoot conditions. But the fact that he is so short in a race of this competitive nature, and that he has been raised 8lb for that win at Sandown, suggests to me that the value definitely lies elsewhere. Indeed, although it was hard not to be impressed with the way Hogmaneigh stormed up the hill at the Esher venue to grab Gimasha, that may have been visually accentuated by the fact that the latter was idling having been in front two long. Proof that connections of Gimasha thought this proved costly was offered when she scored at Lingfield subsequently when held up until the very last minute before being produced with her run. My advice is to opt for the outstanding value bet of the race, Bond City. Significantly, Frankie Dettori has been re-booked to partner the four-year-old after partnering him to victory at Epsom where he beat Cape Royal with a bit more in hand than the half-a-length winning margin suggests. The selection actually meets Cape Royal on 1lb better terms this time after that rival scored at Haydock on his favoured heavy going subsequently. Having been raised just 3lb for that Epsom win, and given that the prospect of good to soft going is ideal for him, Bond City looks sure to go very close on a track which will suit him, and I reckon that at 14/1 with bet365 he is overpriced. Another that could be a steal at current odds is Indian Trail, who has to be worth a couple of quid of anyone's money at 16/1 with Blue Square, as he is a class act when at his best and although it is disconcerting that he has performed so poorly the last twice, he has had a five-week break and is worth another chance. Dandy Nicholls' charge ran a fine race in defeat when staying on strongly to be sixth in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot in June and impressed when beating landing a decent Class 2 contest at Newcastle in the style of a sprinter capable of making the grade at a higher level than handicaps next time. In his next two races the son of Indian Ridge was well below bar. On both occasions he was extremely keen and had nothing to give at the business end. Nicholls is a dab hand at getting the best out of his horses and I'm sure that he will have worked on this problem and cured it. If he has, the 16/1 on offer about this six-year-old could look very generous indeed shortly after 2.05pm on Saturday. The like of Fantasy Believer, The Jobber and Pivotal's Princess all come firmly into the reckoning. The Jobber has been in rude health of late but he seems to prefer faster going nowadays, a remark which also applies to Fantasy Believer, while Pivotal's Princess keeps edging up the weights for her placed efforts and may find one or two rivals better handicapped on the day. Verdict - 0.50pts Bond City @ 14/1 (bet365) & 0.50 pts Indian Trail @ 16/1 (Blue Square)