MANCHESTER CITY VS MANCHESTER UNITED CARLING CUP 1ST LEG TIPS

What a showdown this is going to be! A two-legged Manchester Derby is the footballing equivalent of ordering a £100 steak and then ordering a second one for dessert. I think we’re going to see one of the most hotly-contest Carling Cup clashes in recent memory and the bookies are all offering up competitive prices as they know this is going to be a very high-volume betting event.
We’ve already got over $3,500,000 matched so far on Betfair and the trading is fast, furious and nearly dead-even with United now commanding a slightly shorter price than City. This is in stark contrast to the odds offered up by several top traditional bookmakers yesterday, who were listed City as the slim favourites for the victory. Betfair has a best price of 2.72 on Manchester United to win while Man City trade at a best price of 3.0 even. The draw trades at 3.3 and I suspect that a fair amount of volume will be traded on the draw.
In the correct score market, we’ve got the favoured outcome listed as the 1-1 draw with a 6.8 price. You’ll find that the next most favoured score line is a 1-0 result to Man United at 10.0. 1-0 to City, in contrast garners an 11.5 price tag at the moment. 2-1 to City pays 12.5 while 2-1 to United pays 11.5. It is clear that United is getting the edge, only slightly, on virtually every score selection.
The layers are completely up in the air over the amount of goals with under 2.5 at 1.91 and over 2.5 at 2.08. I think there will be more than 2 goals, but there is very little difference in price and I think this is going to be an open match. Over 3.5 goals pays out at 3.7 and over 4.5 pays out at 7.6.
United trade at 2.1 to score first while City are just behind at 2.14. No goals pays out at 11.5. City are 3.6 to keep a clean sheet while United are 3.55- not much variance there, both sides are expected to score (both teams to score pays 1.66). United trade at 5.1 to be leading at the end of both halves while City are just behind at 5.5. Two draws pays out at 5.6 while draw/city pays out at 7.6 and draw/Man United pays out at 7.2.
Tellingly, Carlos Tevez is the favoured player to score in the game and he trades at a slim 2.84 ahead of team-mate Craig Bellamy who is the second favourite City player to get on the scoresheet at a 3.75 price. Benjani is listed at 3.95 while Robinho is available at 5.6.
For Manchester United, Wayne Rooney is favoure to do the business at 3.15 while Michael Owen can be backed at 3.65. Dimitar Berbatov is available at 3.75 while just-off-the-mark Mame Biram Diouf can be backed at the same price as Danny Welbeck- 5.6.
Darren Fletcher has a habit of scoring in important fixtures and he is priced at 8.2 to score. If he starts, that’s a great bet.
I don’t think the tie will be over after this fixture unless there is some sort of shock 5-0 drubbing. I can easily see 2-1 going in either direction, but there’s a part of me that knows that Sir Alex Ferguson and his Manchester United side can handle pressure like this while City aren’t used to big important matches on a consistent basis. The experience of Manchester United veterans could show through today, but there just seems to be something about that Tevez plotline that makes me hesitant to back United in gung-ho fashion. The 1-1 draw may be the safe choice, but I would push and opt for 2-2. Should the score line get to 2-2, you’d better get out there and drop a bet on a correct score 3-2 for either side, because its moments like those that make football nights like tonight so very special.