Miami Masters Quarters: Nadal and Tsonga go to Battle

Jo Wilfried Tsonga has had a cakewalk of a draw and reaches the quarters of the Miami Masters virtually unchallenged.

He hasn’t dropped a set nor has he dropped that many games either. Given his matchups as they were against Guillermo Garica-Lopez, Philipp Kohslchreiber and Juan Carlos Ferrero, all of whom are predominantly clay-courters, they weren’t ever going to be thrillers.

As he looks ahead to his quarterfinal encounter, finally he has a matchup that should turn into a thriller because standing in his way of a semi-final spot is No.4 Rafael Nadal, the highest seeded player still standing in Miami after World No.1 Roger Federer was dumped unceremoniously in the fourth round.

Fittingly, and in anticipation of what should be a dramatic showdown, their quarterfinal is reserved for primetime in Miami – in a matter of hours. William Hill has released a veritable feast of tennis betting markets on their striking clash. Naturally, Nadal is the favourite but only marginally so at 1/2; Tsonga the puppy, vexingly so to Nadal, listed at mere 6/4 odds.

Nadal has the 4-1 edge over Tsonga lifetime; convincing is this mark because all encounters were played on hard courts a surface that is held to favour Tsonga more than it does Nadal. The only time Tsonga ever beat Nadal was at the Aussie Open semis in 2008, while in the midst of a Cinderella run all the way to a runner-up finish (l. to Djokovic). Since then, Nadal has reeled off three consecutive wins over the Frenchman, spanning two seasons and dropped only two of eight sets played.

On paper, Nadal looks like he is the better play; the market though would seem to have it otherwise with the tight odds it is offering on their match.

Side markets – in the way of set betting and games betting – offer additional value plays for tennis betting buffs looking to flex their muscles and test their handicapping skills.

The straight set win is trading at 5/4 odds to Nadal and 7/2 odds to Tsonga. A three-set marathon is going for 11/4 odds to Nadal and 4/1 odds to Nadal. Irrespective of the winner, a set affair is offered at 8/15 odds while a three set affair is offered at 5/4.

The last match Tsonga and Nadal played was at the Paris Masters in November last year. Nadal beat Tsonga 7-5, 7-5. This last effort is the most representative in the eyes of many and demonstrates just how difficult it is to separate between them.

In terms of scorecasting a whole slew of options are available. 7-5 and 7-6 scores are trading for 14/1 and 8/1 respectively to Tsonga, while the same scores are going for 11/1 and 13/2 to Nadal.

Equally competitive scores but less dramatic are 6-4 and 6-3, which are on offers of 6/1 and 15/2 to Tsonga and 9/2 and 5/1 to Nadal.

Whichever way you slice this match there is value to be had. Theoretically, they each have a real shot to win this match. It all comes down to what happens on court and which player is the better player today. If I were playing with house money, I would back Nadal all the way (Vamos Rafa!!). Having said that I cannot say a win by Tsonga would be a shocker.