MURRAY FAVOURED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO DERAIL NADAL

Some would have you believe that Murray as the marginal favourite over Nadal in the Aussie Open quarterfinal market is indicative of the bookies confidence that Muzz will mastermind what will surely be the biggest upset of the tournament: to dethrone the defending champion Rafael Nadal. is trading Murray at 5/6 to win over Nadal at Evens. This instance though, if you ask me, is not a vote of confidence by the bookies but rather a reflection of the tennis-betting trend on this matchup, a trend that is slightly leaning towards Murray.
Bookies are in the business of balancing action after all and when a trend favours a certain player – even to the point of defying logic (well that might be a bit cheeky) – their hand is forced and they must do whatever it takes to ensure a net profit. This trend has also seen an uptick in Murray’s odds to win the Aussie Open title outright, where he is just edging Nadal, 4/1 to 9/2.  Again, this is an adjustment for parity in the markets, if nothing else.
Fact is Murray beating Nadal is easier said than done. Yet, tennis bettors are swayed by Muzz; have been for some time. That he has only ever managed to synonymise “potential Grand Slam champion” is conveniently forgotten. In fact, last Aussie Open he was tipped by all asunder as the short-odds-on favourite to win the title outright, ahead of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic – all of whom at the time had overshadowed him on the major stage. It was a sobering experience when he lost to Verdasco in the last 16 and Nadal beat Federer in a five-set epic to win his first-ever, hard court Grand Slam title.
Another fact is tennis bettors – heck, even pundits alike – for whatever reason persist in doubting Rafa. ‘T’is a mystery why? Let me know if you figure it out.
The case against Muzz is a 2-7 lifetime mark against Nadal and one minor, tiny detail – don’t worry if you missed it, thousands would – Nadal has six Grand Slam titles and Murray a big, ZERO. True, that is no reason to assume he will not beat Nadal today or for that matter that he is not a viable contender for the title in Melbourne, but in lieu of a convincing and recent victory over Nadal and a Grand Slam title in the bag, forgive me if I am a bit of a skeptic.
That said if Murray puts paid on my prediction – which is, Nadal to win this blockbuster quarterfinal clash contrary to the market – it would be a huge upset. Make no mistake about it. Murray is the market favourite at 5/6 to win but Nadal has the decided on paper edge. Speaking of his edge, kinda makes his mere snub at Evens rather tempting a bet, don't you think.
The popular hope is that these two players will live up to their billing and deliver a sensational five-set affair – perhaps even an epic. In such a case, is trading Murray and Nadal to win 3-2 at 9/2. If you ask me they have the wrong end of the stick on that one because Nadal is the proven five-set player and surely, he should be a bit more favoured than that.  Murray to win in straights is trading at 4/1 compared to Nadal at 5/1 while a 3-1 score has Nadal at 4/1 while Murray comes in at 7/2.
In contrast, is decidedly unrevealing, listing both players equally across the board. They each carry a 5/6 price to win outright. And both are listed 4/1 to win a five set marathon.