Nedbank Challenge Preview

The Nedbank Challenge is always a decent event, attracting a select clutch of personnel to a great golf course and a hefty first prize cheque. This year it has attracted what is probably the strongest field yet, with all eleven entrants being amongst the top 20 players in the world rankings. Ernie Els loves the event, and will be trying to win it for the 4th time. It will be his first tournament since injuring knee cartilage in July however, and so at 4/1 we feel the Big Easy should be swerved. The other home favourite, and box office crowd puller is Retief Goosen, and as the defending champion and with some decent form, the two time US Open winner is the 10/3 favourite. The last time he was seen in action was at the Tour Championship three weeks ago, and the world number five was outstanding for three days, before letting it slip with a final round of 74. He finished fourth but such final day lapses have been occurring quite regularly these days for Goosen. He has always been known as an ultra cool customer, and his two US Open wins were evidence of this. Winning that tournament requires patience and application more that any other. However, once again this year Goosen was in prime position for that title, leading after three days but a calamitous 81 saw him fall from the top ten. This, coupled with the Tour Championship collapse just raises a few doubts and will mount the pressure should he be in a winning position once again. This price is too short for our liking. The quality on show is reflected in the way that all eleven players are priced at 25/1 or shorter. Luke Donald is another man who struggles to produce four good rounds in any given week, and without a title during 2005 we will ignore the Englishman for now at 14/1. Chris DiMarco is a man who certainly should have won more than he has, and during this current season has finished second three times. Even more astonishing though was his two successive Major playoff defeats, at the 2004 US PGA and the 2005 US Masters. We do not put these submissions down to a lack of nerve however, and they have not affected his confidence in any way other than positively. He was seventh on the US Money list for the season, his best ever effort and his consistency is illustrated in the fact that he has been in the top 20 on that list for the past six campaigns. Three trips to the Nedbank have yielded results of 3rd, 7th and 4th over the last three years and so Sun City is clearly a place the world number eight enjoys competing. 14/1 is available, and this is good enough to make an each way bet advisable, especially with the American seemingly adept at finishing second. An each way bet on this market pays out at 1 /4 odds for a top three finish. To supplement this selection we wanted to find an outright pick to put in the verdict. The man we are going for is Sergio Garcia. He is priced at 6/1 but has a fine record at this tournament, and twice has been crowned champion, in 2001 and 2003. 2005 has been another excellent campaign and he is the one European player who manages to regularly taste success both on the European Tour and in America. He actually won titles on both tours this season, claiming the Booz Allen Classic in the states and the Omega European Masters on his home side of the ocean. His talent is beyond doubt, and it is amazing to realise that the Spaniard is still just 25 years old. Whilst the search for a Major still goes on, time is very much on his side and with players still very competitive into their late 40's and even beyond, the future is bright for Garcia. With some level of doubt over Els and Goosen, we think that 6/1 is an exciting price about his prospects. Whilst the quality has always been there, there was a perceived inconsistency in his game that made him vulnerable. However, some well-documented swing changes are now reaping dividends, and the fact that he hit more greens in regulation than anyone else on the US Tour during 2005 bears this out. Betting Verdict1 pt Chris DiMarco each way (1/4 odds 1,2,3) at 14/11 pt Sergio Garcia to win at 6/1