New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh have lost only once this season, are unbeaten at home, embarrassed the Super Bowl champions in week 8 34-20, and were ranked number the number one defence at the end of the regular season. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Despite all that the Steelers are not favourites to beat <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />New England in the AFC Championship game. The bookies have reacted to the less than impressive Pittsburgh victory last weekend, and the impressive manner in which the Patriots beat the Colts. The last time Pittsburgh hosted an AFC Championship game was in 2002 against New England. They lost then and the Patriots went onto win Super Bowl. While the bookies are expecting a similar outcome in 2005, I am not convinced and would prefer to put my money behind the Pittsburgh Steelers at a best price 13/10. Although the Patriots defence will enter this week with a tremendous amount of confidence after dominating the number one offence in the league, Pittsburgh will pose an entirely new set of problems. The Steelers ran the ball more than any other team in the NFL during the regular season, and they will rely heavily on the running game on Sunday, especially as last time the teams met they pounded the Patriots for over 200 yards. Assuming the home team do establish a sound running game once again, life will become much easier for Ben Roethlisberger. The Patriots beat up secondary won't be nearly as effective if the defence is constantly expecting the run. With regards to the Patriots offence, much is being made about Corey Dillon and how much he was missed in the week 8 meeting. However, it should not be forgotten that Pittsburgh were ranked number one on defence, and number one on rushing defence. Like in the NFC Championship game, snow is forecast to fall with game time temperatures of 20 degrees. If it does turn into a battle of who can run the ball most effectively and play the better defence, my preference would go to the home team. Of course the Patriots record must be respected, as well as Tom Brady's unbeaten run in the play-offs, and so stakes should be kept to a sensible level on the Steelers.