New Zealand host South Africa Analysis

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />New Zealand host South Africa this weekend in a match that will effectively settle the 2005 Tri-Nations. The home team are favourites for the game at 2/7, and the tournament at 19/50, but in order to win either they will have to subject the Springboks to their first defeat of the campaign.Two home wins took the Boks to Perth last week, and many were doubtful whether they could transfer their form out of their homeland. But they proved they could, and the 23-20 success against Australia could prove to be a turning point on the development of this side. Winning close games is a vital skill to hone at international level, and right now South Africa have it mastered.But a trip to Carisbrook in Dunedin is a fearsome prospect. The aptly monikered House of Pain Stadium is the biggest fortress of all in the Land of the Long White Cloud, and no South African team has ever been victorious there. Defence was the winner last week, and teams are still struggling to find ways of breaking down the rushing green backline. Australia had the majority of possession but could not find a way through, although New Zealand have far more in the way of riches behind the scrum. If they keep the ball for more than a few phases of play, we would expect openings to be forced.Losing Daniel Carter at fly half is a big blow though, and Leon Macdonald will be playing at number ten for the first time at test level. The Boks managed to unsettle Carter in the corresponding match in Cape Town three weeks ago, and they will be intent on making Macdonald equally uncomfortable. This change at pivot is the only one to the starting fifteen for Graham Henry's men, although Doug Howlett and Sione Lauki move up to the bench. We are yet to be convinced by the hype surrounding this New Zealand side however, and back at home the pressure will be on to perform to a high level.The most interesting market for this game is the handicaps, and we are happy to see that New Zealand have been given a 10 point start. South Africa can cover this at a generous Evens with William HillBreyton Paulse has been suspended following the Australia game, but this allows De Wet Barry to come into Jake White's team. Barry is a tremendous prospect and plays at centre, with Jean de Villiers on Paulse's wing. These are all strong tacklers, and Brian Habana on the other wing will be looking to feed off any turnovers, as he did to claim two superb tries seven days ago.Physical is the word when these two proud nations do battle, and the prospect of Os du Randt and Carl Hayman locking horns at prop is a shuddering one. Neither team will take a backward step in a contest that is crucial, not just for this tournament, but also in terms of setting the balance of power in the global game.South Africa may not have won at Carisbrook before, but they are in the habit of breaking records. They won this title last year from a price of 9/1, and then defeated New Zealand in Cape Town for the first time in 30 years three weeks ago. A well-documented inability to win on the road was put to bed last week in Australia, and we feel they can push the AB's. With their nose for winning close games, perhaps there is an argument for them to go one step further and actually win the game, at 3/1Four successive wins against the teams ranked at one and two in the world, New Zealand and Australia indicate to us that they are quite clearly the form side in world rugby. It would make sense to back them then but with our outright tournament bet being in their favour, we are going to keep stakes small and use the handicap.Betting Verdict0.50 pts South Africa (+10) to win at Evens