Northumberland Plate Betting Analysis

Newcastle's Gosforth Park racecourse plays host to the north east's annual equine endurance feature this Saturday, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate, or, as the local contingency swigging on copious amounts of brown ale would say, the 'Pitmen's Derby'.The last two renewals of this two-mile event, which is the most valuable handicap over that distance in the UK racing calendar, have been won by horses that had been running over hurdles during the winter - Mirjan last year and Unleash in 2003 - and many expect the Alan Swinbank-trained Far Pavilions to follow suit, an expectation which is reflected in the betting with the six-year-old as short as 11-4 in places.The gelding is clearly in rude health and the handicapper may not have his measure yet, despite upping him by a total of 24lb since the initiation of his hat-trick of victories at Catterick in April. However, this is his toughest assignment on the level to date and his odds are ludicrously stingy for what promises to be a hugely competitive handicap, therefore I reckon he is well worth taking on with ODIHAM, who looks an each-way steal at 11-1 with William Hill.The lightly raced four-year-old proved to be a revelation when stepped up to two miles on the all-weather at Lingfield in May where he beat decent yardstick Cold Turkey by an eased-down five lengths. Although that race was run on the Polytrack, the form should not be underestimated, as it was a highly competitive contest featuring some battle-hardened campaigners.Moreover, the manner of Odiham's victory left the impression that there was a great deal more to come now that he's carved out a niche in the staying handicappers' sphere. The son of Deploy appears versatile with regards to underfoot conditions so the only real concern would be if he were to be drawn high. Despite the fact that the race is run over a marathon trip, winning it from a high draw can be tantamount to climbing Mount Everest, a point backed up by the stats: eight of the last 10 winners of this valuable marathon have emerged from a single-figure stall.That said I'd be inclined to get on before the draw takes place on Friday because, if he is allocated a decent berth, his price will no doubt tumble accordingly. Michael Jarvis has taken Anak Pekan out of the race on account of the prevailing conditions - the going is projected to be good-to-firm - but has an able deputy in Peak Of Perfection, who was beaten a half-a-length by Far Pavilions at Musselburgh latest and will be meeting that rival on 4lb better terms on Saturday. That was a promising effort following two indifferent performances on his first two starts of the season. He merits respect but I'd be surprised if he were good enough. Swift Sailor, third in that Musselburgh race, was soundly beaten when fifth in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot at York latest. He looks a shade high in the weights for what he actually achieved and is probably one to look out for towards the autumn, as he looks much happier when there's cut in the ground.Stablemate Golden Quest, runner-up in the Ascot Stakes, has found his form of late and rates a bigger threat given that he's a proven top-of-the-ground performer, who is still off a fair mark. Irish-raider Coconut Beach, third in that two-and-a-half-mile event at Royal Ascot at York, should give a good account, while the David Elsworth-trained Balkan Knight could go well at rewarding odds if his stamina holds out.Betting verdict: 1pt e/w Odiham @ 11/1 (William Hill)