PADDY POWER 2009 KENTUCKY DERBY BETTING TIPS

We're seeing some real solidification in the antepost market for the 2009 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 2nd. As it currently stands right now, I Want Revenge is listed at a mere 5/2 with Paddy Power, down from his high of 4/1 just a few weeks ago. Dunkirk, the former #1 favourite (before an epic fail at Gulfstream) is now available at 5/1, but I think that's under-priced. Dunkirk hasn't actually done anything yet. He's the equivalent of a spam stock e-mail you get promising you some company is going to explode in the next two weeks. Dunkirk may be a beautiful horse with all the right pedigrees and connections, but at the end of the day I back horses based on results. He has one race in his whole career and he didn't even win. Case closed on Dunkirk. Friesen Fire has made some moves in the past few days and is now backable at 6/1. He's done well over the course of his career, but all of his victories (three on the trot now) have all come in Grade 2 or Grade 3 competition and that's simply not Kentucky Derby form. If you're going to win the big dance, you have to be winning consistently against top quality opposition. I'm sorry, the likes of Papa Clem and Flying Pegasus just aren't top quality opposition. No sooner do I type the words top quality than I mention Pioneerof The Nile. This is my pick for the Derby. No show bet, no each-way. This horse will win. He's coming in on the back of four straight wins, two from Grade 1 races. I bet on him during the Santa Anita Derby and he jumped out to an insurmountable lead right out of the gate. This is an absolute pacer with closing ability. He's solid on turf and great on the grass and his win at Hollyburn shows his versatility. And who was it that he thumped at Hollyburn? I Want Revenge. He also finished third to Pioneerof The Nile at Santa Anita in February. Do the math for this Derby and you realize that you've got a hype-horse (Dunkirk) alongside a solid, albeit inconsistent, contender in I Want Revenge. You have a horse with a great record in lower-grade races (Friesen Fire) and then you've got a proven winner in high-stakes competition with the ability to set the pace and close things out strong. Pioneerof The Nile simply has so much gas in the tank, I can't put my money anywhere else. I Want Revenge has been bested by Pioneerof The Nile twice this season. Get in there on that 6/1 and do it now. Keep your eye on Musket Man for your show bets.