Paddy Power Chase betting tips

The Paddy Power Chase is still in its infancy - the inaugural running of this valuable handicap which takes place at Leopardstown was in 2004 - but the three-mile contest has quickly established itself as a key event in the Irish racing calendar. This year's renewal on December 27 looks set to be as fiercely competitive as the two that preceded it. Ex hunter Ballistraw heads the market and has to be respected after winning his first race under Rules at Punchestown earlier this month. That was over two and a half miles, but he scored over this trip in a hunter chase so stamina won't be an issue, while having had just eight career starts overall the seven-year-old is open to improvement. However, the one that interests me most - and rates cracking at value at 12/1 with the sponsors - is the Tom Taaffe-trained Cane Brake, who has excelled since joining the County Kildare-based handler. Horses often benefit from a change of scenery, and this son of Sadler's Wells is a case in point. After being pulled up in this race last season, Cane Brake's next four starts in the care of David Wachman yielded little in the way of promise - he was tailed off in each of the quartet of races in question. But, new surroundings, new season, and the seven-year-old appears to be recapturing his best. A pipe-opener at Galway over an inadequate trip (2m 1f) in October was much more like it. Indeed, he finished a highly creditable second to a race-fit, in-form rival, Kahuna, finishing 14 lengths clear of the third. Subsequently, back over his favoured three-mile trip, the selection travelled and jumped well before cosily beating Kerryhead Windfarm by four lengths. The latter will reoppose on 6lb better terms, but Cane Brake looked value for a good deal more than the winning margin as he was eased down after hopping over the last flight well in command. Now that he has rediscovered his form there's every chance that there will be more to come and I reckon he'll prove extremely hard to beat, especially if, as expected, the going is soft and Barry Geraghty again takes the ride. Naturally, it won't be a cakewalk given that he'll be saddled with top weight - and, as things stand, he will be conceding 19lb to Ballistraw - but Cane Brake remains a horse of massive potential. Don't forget, he failed by just six lengths to give subsequent Sun Alliance Hurdle hero Nicanor 11lb over hurdles at Navan last November. On that sort of form, albeit in a different sphere, he'd pick these up and carry them, never mind shirk the burden of 11st 10lb! Tony Martin's charge Newbay Prop is a chaser on an upward curve, but he'd need an awful lot of horses above him in the weights to defect as he is 16lb out of the handicap proper, while Ross River, who was third in this last year, looks sure to be in the mix if putting his best hooves forward. Davy Russell gave the grey a truly bizarre ride in the boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham last time when, still going well two out, he showed no sign of urgency aboard the ten-year-old and simply accepted defeat without giving his mount every chance of getting involved. In fact, I was quite surprised not to hear that the stewards had looked into this. In any case, Ross River rates one of the main dangers all things being equal. And another horse to compete in this last term, G V A Ireland, who wasn't beaten far in fifth, is also feared. Francis Flood's charge ideally wants a stiffer stamina test, so if conditions were to come up very testing, his prospects would be enhanced greatly. Sir Frederick is a young chaser going the right way and should make his presence felt, along with the Arthur Moore-trained duo, Well Tutored and Jaquouille. The latter has ran in both of the previous renewals of this, finishing runner-up in 2004 before disappointing when favourite last year. He was still in with a chance of reaching the frame when falling in Cane Brake's race last time, but I doubt he would have troubled the winner, and I doubt he'll trouble him this time either. Well Tutored is one of the least exposed in the line-up so while he needs to improve to feature prominently in a race of this stature, it would be folly to underestimate him. That said, the race he landed at Naas last time was over 2m 3f and the third home that day, Sound Witness, was putting in good late work and, meeting Well Tutored on 8lb better terms and over a more suitable trip, Robert Tyner's representative has claims of exacting revenge. Verdict - 1pt Cane Brake @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)