Political Betting: Next EU President

Bookmakers Paddy Power have priced up a market on who will be the next permanent President of the EU should the Treaty of Lisbon be ratified by the 27 member countries of the EU. The post is not vacant until the end of the year and until all the member states ratify the Lisbon treaty, the job description will not even begin to be known. Still, political punters can get their money's worth, and as befits an Irish bookmaker, Paddy Power make Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern their 5/2 favourite. Ahern sits as the head of the coalition government in Ireland after his party, Fianna Fail, won the Emerald Isle's general election in May last year. Mr Ahern received the backing of Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, earlier this month. Tusk said on Ahern's recent visit to Warsaw: "For Poland and the Poles, and for my part, if the Taoiseach of Ireland had such an idea and intention, the approach of the Poles would be most obviously and certainly favourable," Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair was the initial front-runner and Power make him 7/2 to make a significant political comeback. Blair was touted as the ideal man for the job by French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkosy. The two were reported to have dined together with the subject very much at the forefront of their discussions. In October, Sarkosy said: "He is a remarkable man, the most European of all the British. "I do not know what his intentions are, but that one could think of him as a possibility would be quite a smart move." It is thought that Italy and Spain would be opposed to Blair, not least because of those countries opposition to the Iraq war, but it is thought that Silvio Berlusconi may back the former British Premier should he win his country's elections next month. At the time of writing, Betfair offer 1.3 about Berlusconi winning again. The biggest obstacle to Blair however, could be Germany. Although Chancellor Angela Merkel admires Blair greatly, Merkel is thought not to want his candidacy. One source close to Merkel said, firing a broad side: "You simply cannot impose a candidate against Germany's wishes," Sarkosy was obviously in a troublesome mood that October night because he also offered Luxembourg's Premier Jean-Claude Juncker as a viable alternative. Power see him as a threat to Ahern too, and go 3/1 second favourite. Junker has the powerful support of the Benelux countries, as well as senior social democrats in Brussels, and the European sympathiser got a boost recently when José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was re-elected in Spain. Zapatero, Juncker and Brussles would chiefly form a powerful 'stop the Blair bandwagon' party.