Portsmouth vs Cardiff City: FA Cup Final tips

Given that they finished 12th in the Championship, have only managed one win in their last four matches and are facing a Portsmouth side that have just completed the most successful season in their history, there is no real reason to suppose that Cardiff will shock Portsmouth in the FA Cup final at odds of 4/1. Click here for a free £200 to bet on the FA Cup final with Canbet But then again, nobody, apart from this column in Round 4, would have expected Pompey to get this far either and yet here they are, having brought mighty Manchester United to their knees on their way to Wembley. Much like the Uefa Cup, this is the year of the underdog, where somehow two rank outsiders have reached the final of a tournament which has been exclusively the preserve of the Top Four for the last 13 years. But there are outsiders (Pompey were 16/1 when tipped up on Bettingchoice) and there are outsiders. And Portsmouth are justifiably 3/4 favourites to win the FA Cup for the first time, given both Cardiff's lack of pedigree and the fact that Harry Redknapp has turned the club from the south coast into a genuine Premier League force. Pompey might have qualified for the Uefa Cup by virtue of their league finish had they not reached the final. But the downturn in their results since beating West Brom in the semi-finals could prove to be their undoing. It's almost as though the side have been playing with an innate fear of getting injured and missing the final, which has led to a loss of form, and in turn a run of results that reads, in order: won one, drawn one, lost four. Pompey have been without goalkeeper David James for three of those four defeats and his expected return will be a boost, but having Jermain Defoe cup-tied will not help the fact that Portsmouth have also forgotten how to score. Two goals in six matches is a miserable return. Cardiff, by contrast, have been scoring freely, managing eight goals in their last four matches, with Joe Ledley hitting the target three times in as many games. Admittedly, those strikes came against second-tier opposition and their results have been erratic, but Cardiff know that they can do it against top-flight opposition, having beaten Middlesbrough in the fifth round. The match will be closer than the odds suggest and those of you who backed Pompey at 16/1 can happily now lay them off at a profit, which has to be the advice here as Pompey could come unstuck. Those of you who didn't can take comfort in the generous 4/1 about the Cup heading to Wales in what promises to be a low scoring match. Verdict: 5pts lay Portsmouth @ 1.36; 2pts under 1.5 goals @ 7/4; 2pts Cardiff to win @ 4/1; 1pt Portsmouth to win after trailing @ 33/1; 2pts Joe Ledley to score anytime @ 5/1 Already recommended: 2pts Pompey to win the FA Cup @ 16/1 Click here for a free £200 to bet on the FA Cup final with Canbet Canbet offers the best in Asian Handicap and Live "In-Play" betting. £200 Free when you join!