Revised Analysis - Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday's totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup has suffered a series of knocks over the past week. Firstly, there was defection of Best Mate, who broke a blood vessel on the gallops. Then came the news that Kingscliff had failed to sparkle in his last piece of work, and was therefore withdrawn. By far the most tragic was the news that Farmer Jack, who was supplemented for the race at a cost of £17,500, died of a suspected heart attack on Wednesday morning.On a more upbeat note, the race still looks fascinating and provides Ireland's crack chaser Beef Or Salmon with an opportunity to emerge from Best Mate's shadow and land jump racings blue riband. However, his jumping continues to give cause for concern and his overall profile suggests he is not one to trust implicitly. Indeed, Michael Hourigan's stable star tends to go from the sublime to the ridiculous at a rate equal to that of the fluctuations of Britain's weather. A 3½ beating of Kicking King at Down Royal in November was followed by a lacklustre run when third to that rival at Punchestown a month later; a seven-length beating of a below-par Best Mate in the Lexus Chase was proceeded by a costly failure (sent off at 8-15) when thrashed by Rule Supreme in the Irish Hennessy last month.Admittedly there were excuses for both defeats - an upper respiratory tract problem was cited as the reason for failure in the latter race - but, while he was not disgraced when coming home fourth in this race last year, I am not convinced that this horse is as good as was once believed and, frankly, I'd be inclined to lay him in Friday's showpiece.By far the strongest credentials are boasted by Celestial Gold, who stands out as a solid alternative to a field otherwise shrouded in a multitude of ifs and buts. The seven-year-old has improved beyond recognition and it is his versatility that has impressed me most. Martin Pipe's charge kicked off this season's campaign by demonstrating the pace to beat the likes of Thisthatandtother and Monkerhostin in the 2m 4½f Paddy Power Gold Cup, then two weeks later underlined his stamina by showing his rivals a clean pair of heels in the 3m 2½f Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. Sure, he suffered his first reverse of the season when third behind Framer Jack and Strong Flow in the Aon Chase, but the muddling pace did not suit him and jockey Timmy Murphy could be seen through the first mile of the race trying to restrain his mount who simply wanted to go faster. Needless to say, this took its toll at the business end and, as it stands, Celestial Gold did extremely well to be beaten just 1½l and a head respectively.Strong Flow emerges from the race with plenty of credit, as that was his first start over fences for 14 months. Paul Nicholls' charge jumped well and appears to have retained the ability that saw him arrive on the chasing scene with a bang last season and, if he continues to improve, he may well be a future Gold Cup winner. However, whether his jumping will stand up as well in a race poised to be run at a frenetic pace is open to question, given that he is still inexperienced in this sphere and I feel that he will be a far more serious candidate next year, by which point he will have matured and, touch wood, will have an uninterrupted preparation.Sir Rembrandt, who was also unsuited by the pedestrian pace when finishing fourth in the Aon, posted a career-best when making Best Mate pull out all the stops in last year's renewal. Some of his form from this season so far leaves him way short of what is required to lift a Gold Cup. However, his trainer Robert Alner is adamant that his charge is a better horse in the spring and that he has a serious chance. I'm inclined to agree and Sir Rembrandt is the one I fear most, although the drying ground will not be in his favour.A similar doubt surrounds Grey Abbey who is a much better horse when there's juice in the ground. The front-running grey was most impressive when slamming Therealbandit and Royal Auclair in the Pillar Chase in January but this is far more competitive. Kicking King dispelled doubts that he would stay three-miles when surviving a last-fence howler to land the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. But 3m 2½f over the unique undulations of Prestbury Park represents an altogether different assignment, and, with the exception of Kingscliff who was making his seasonal reappearance there, he essentially beat non-stayers, out of form sorts, and those that simply were not good enough. In fact, Kicking King won what was probably the weakest King George of recent times.Although lacking a horse of star status, this is nevertheless a competitive Gold Cup and, at 9-2 with VCBet, Celestial Gold will be carrying my hard-earned wedge and I cannot recommend him enough to fellow punters.Betting verdict - 2pt win Celestial Gold @ 9/2 (VCBet)