ROGERS CUP BETTING PICKS ANDY MURRAY BEGINS ROGERS CUP BID

Andy Murray is set to begin his Rogers Cup title defence campaign this afternoon in Toronto. Precisely, in a couple of hours he is scheduled to take Centre Court at the Rexall Centre. Waiting in the wings is Belgian Xavier Malisse, a middleweight in the game according to the ATP rankings but a player that is clearly on form and hot right now.
I might as well admit it: I am not a huge Murray fan. I am not buying what he is selling (he needs to work on his sales pitch and closing skills on court before I get with the program). And normally, I wouldn’t spend an afternoon watching him on the telly, I find tepid tea and crumpets more riveting than he is (sorry Muzz fans), but that is exactly what I am going to do today.
Why would I be tuning into this match. Because, I believe Malisse has a chance at the upset and I am curious to find out whether he can indeed accomplish the feat.
Speaking of curiosity, I took a gander at several popular bookmakers and the tennis markets they’ve released on the match, and I have to say there are no surprises there.
Murray is a whopping favourite across the board to win outright (shocker). William Hill has him down as the 1/5 fave to win.
Naturally, Malisse is a significant underdog, listed at 10/3. What I like about his price, long though it is, is that it is so tempting. It is tempting simply because Malisse has pulled off three upsets already this summer, significant upsets, that another would be just par for the course.
On the back of startlingly improved form since Roland Garros this year, the Belgian Malisse has won 14 of his last 20 matches and beaten players such as Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych and John Isner.
Wins like these are nothing to scoff at and they are fodder for confidence. Add to that mental feast the fact that Malisse is a wild one, cocky and self-assured and you have a player that won’t be intimidated by Murray and that can stare him down, mano a mano.
Murray has the "on paper" edge but to say he is a "tour de force" would be an understatement. He is conspicuously without a title this season, although he has managed to make a cameo appearance in a final or two – Melbourne and Los Angeles.
He is an underwhelming (by his standards) 25-11 on the term, which gives him a concerning 0.694 ATP Best winning Percentage. Murray beefed up his numbers with a runner-up finish in Los Angeles last week. A week ago, his ATP Best Winning Percentage was hovering at an impressive 0.551 mark.
Simple maths, Malisse has wiggle room here. He has about a 30-40% chance to take the match from Murray. This makes this match wide open, in my opinion.