Rugby Betting: Heineken Cup tournament preview

When perusing the pools for this year's Heineken Cup, it is striking to see that the best teams are in the most difficult groups. Wasps coach Ian McGeechan had a good old moan at the Heineken Cup organisers about the fact that his reigning champions have been placed in a group with former winners Munster, European Challenge Cup champions Clermont, who were also within a whisker of winning the French championship last year and Llanelli, who have a proud European Cup record. There will be no quarter given in this group, and between them they have lost on home soil just 19 times in 114 matches. Even if you do manage to pick the winner of such a fiendishly difficult round-robin, you still might not have uncovered the winner of the Heineken Cup because the four best Pool winners get home advantage in the next round, which is unlikely to be the four teams currently under the microscope. Two sides who look guaranteed home advantage in the quarter-finals are Stade Francais and Perpignan. The glitzy capital men will scare no-one with their strip - skin-tight pink jerseys adorned with flowers - but you just have to look at their choices at fly-half to see the embarrassment of riches they have in most positions. David Skrela and Lionel Beauxis vie for the No 10 jersey at international level for France, and yet, both may be beaten to a starting berth by Juan Martin Hernandez, one of the talents that truly dazzled at the recent World Cup. Stade Francais are therefore rightly favourites for this competition at a best-priced 3/1 with Blue Square and look nailed on for a quarter-final spot. Many would have Biarritz as a shoo-in as quarter-finalists, but I'm not so convinced. Alan Gaffney has got Saracens playing some really good rugby at the moment and they have earned their third place in the Premiership. Biarritz have played some turgid rugby in this tournament over the last two seasons - anyone who witnessed their 7-6 defeat at home to relegated Northampton last year would question their presence in this exalted competition - and look far too short. The seasiders are also not in the best of shape at the moment having drawn 15-15 with lowly Albi two weeks ago, and their conservatism was still for all to see last week in their battling 12-7 win over Brive. Take the 3/1 about Sarries. Last year's finalists Leicester face Toulouse in Pool 6 which will set pulses racing, and although the presence of Leinster may get the juices flowing for rugby fans, it is questionable how good the Irish side will prove to be. Ireland were pretty awful at the World Cup and the fall-out over their performance will surely be seen in their provinces. Neath-Swansea Ospreys have a hell of a match-up with Gloucester in Pool 2 and at evens, the Cherry and Whites look value, purely because of how the fixture list works out. Pool rivals Ulster have been pretty poor in the Magners League this season and Gloucester have the benefit of playing them first up, with the Welsh region visiting Kingsholm after that. With points on the board, the current Premiership leaders could be hard to peg back. Last year we saw the perils of betting at the tournament outset. Finalists Leicester lost their first fixture at home to Munster and eventual champions Wasps handed out bonus points to Castres and lost to Perpignan in the first two rounds. Both sides drifted. At the outset Sarries and Gloucester look the best Pool stage bets and should be grouped together in a double, but with such a long way to go, it may be foolhardy to take a position on the outright market just yet. Verdict: 2pts Saracens to win Pool 4 @ 3/1 (Blue Sq); 1pt double on Saracens and Gloucester to win Pools @ 8/1 (Blue Sq)