Rugby betting: Wales vs South Africa

World champions South Africa pitch up at Cardiff to face Wales for the honour of playing for the Prince William Cup. The Prince has kindly allowed the use of his name for a new cup to mark the centenary of a rugby relationship between the two countries. Small matter that Prince William was last seen cheering on England in no uncertain terms at the recent Rugby World Cup final in France. This is a contest that has been billed as a must-win fixture for Wales after their abject exit at the World Cup at the hands of Fiji, but some pundits seem to have forgotten that South Africa have absolutely no desire to lose their first game as world champions, either. The Welsh are currently being handled by caretaker Nigel Davies but new coach Warren Gatland will be watching each player's every move from the stands. Gatland will have the considerable benefit of being able to watch Ospreys centre Gavin Henson's return to the national set-up after former coach Gareth Jenkins inexplicably omitted the perma-tanned player from his World Cup squad. Although some may not be able to stomach Henson for all of his preening, there is no denying that the Bridgend boy is a smooth operator. His bulk and distribution act as a focus for the Welsh three-quarters and when he plays, Wales have a decent record. Teamed up with Ospreys colleague James Hook at fly-half, the home side look to have a better balance in their backline and should be a more potent attacking force. They will need to be however. Although only nine of the World Cup final heroes line-up in Cardiff, coach Jake White can still call on a squad that is capable of performing to a level the home side can only currently dream of. The Springboks have lost metronomic kicker Percy Montgomery and probably the best scrum-half in the world in the shape of Fourie du Preez. Throw in the fact that lock Victor Matfield also sits out and that is a triumvirate who are difficult to replace. White has drafted in Rickie Pienaar at full-back, and Andre Pretorius at fly-half. Pretorius used to be one of the most accurate kickers on the planet but Springbok fans will need to hope that he can get over his performance against Tonga in September when he missed six attempts at the posts. The fact that Francois Steyn has taken numerous kicks at goal in the past though, should steady the nerves of Springbok supporters and it will be interesting to see whether both Steyn and Henson take pot-shots from their own half. As a result, Sporting Index's kicking metres could be worth a look. South Africa have been given a deficit by the bookmakers that is no less than five points shorter than when Australia came to town for the Pool B encounter at the World Cup. The Wallabies were considered between nine and 12-point favourites back in September and now, the world champions are considered that much worse. I don't see it myself, and although the presence of Henson makes Wales's chances that much better, Wales haven't improved in the space of a few weeks, certainly not as much as the bookmakers would have you believe. South Africa should win this, and win this well, and we shouldn't get carried away by what could be another false dawn for the Dragons. Verdict: 3pts South Africa -7 @ 10/11 (Betfred)