Shell Houston Open Golf Preview

Seeing the PGA Tour switch to the arid lands of Texas will be a relief for the powers that be who have seen over half of the events this season heavily affected by poor weather. However, there is no guarantee that the sun will shine on the Lone Star State either, as we saw last year at this tournament, the Shell Houston Open.Heavy rain prior to and during proceedings meant that the rough was thick and the challenge stiff, as evidenced by the scoring average that increased from 71.2 in 2003 to 73.1. At over 7500 yards the Peter Jacobsen designed Redstone Golf Club is especially punishing when the ground is soft, and it was not surprising to see one of the longest hitters around prevail.The fact that that man also happens to have possibly the best all round game is also a notable factor, and few will need any more introduction to Vijay Singh. It was actually his second success in Houston in three years, and with no other member of the world's top ten taking part this week, it is clear to see why the bookies have him as clear favourite, with a best available price of 4/1. However, despite still displaying an incredible ability to finish highly, there have been occasions of late where the Fijian has lost his nerve in the closing stages, most memorably at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic and the Honda Classic. This price is too short to get excited about with these negative points very much in mind.David Toms is next in line at 14's, mainly due to his position as playing consultant for the course than any recent form. In fact, the cut has been missed on his last two outings. Darren Clarke has fared better than Toms, but a heart breaking loss at the MCI Heritage last week could take its toll on the petulant Ulsterman, and the 18/1 does not appeal to each way punters.Only three men have recorded top tens in the two years that Redstone has hosted this tournament. The first is Singh, and his case is outlined above. The other is the ultimate in the long ball game, John Daly, but poor form is a deterrent in his situation. The third man however does merit selection, and that is Geoff Ogilvy.Results of 10th last year, and 7th in 2003 are impressive, and back up the length theory, as the Australian ranked as the 7th longest driver on the Tour for 2003. 28/1 is the best price to be found, and this looks like decent value to us. Earlier in the campaign the 27 year old bagged the first PGA title of his career at the Chrysler Classic of Tucson, and followed this up with 6th place at the Honda Classic in Florida.Two more average weeks followed this, but only three men have averaged more birdies per round than Ogilvy, and he loves the longer holes, of which there are several at Redstone. Over half of the par fives he has played this season have been birdied to this point and there are four such holes on this course, each one measuring over 550 yards.Just slightly longer is a fellow antipodean, Rod Pampling, and his main selling point is due to his most recent form. Since coming 27th at the Players Championship, the 35 year old has come 5th at the US Masters, and then 6th at the Heritage on Sunday. His results at this tournament have not been exceptional, but he has managed a round 66 and one of 68 in the six completed, showing that he can score well here.With his full time residence being in Texas, he should feel comfortable and with such good form on his side, few players will be more confident than the winner of the 2004 International. 33/1 is the best offering for the man who has earned progressively more money each year since joining the full Tour in 2002.Another player with exceptional form on his side is Tim Herron, and we know from experience that the man they call 'Lumpy' is one for whom good results ten to come in batches.For example he began this season with three good results in the top 20 (17th, 6th and 4th) before dropping off the radar. This slump lasted until the Players Championship where he came 6th, and subsequently ended up 11th at the Masters which was his last start.Similar patterns are evident in past seasons also, with his best form being contained with six events in the middle of last year, and it was no different in 2003. When Herron began on the Tour, he was tipped to become one of the top players around. However, the last of his three victories came at the 1999 Bay Hill Invitational, a statistic that belies his talent.One of the three wins came in Texas at the La Cantera Open, and Herron is a man who has a huge number of top five finishes, which would be good enough for an each way payout. 40/1 is a good price for the 34 year old who also came 11th here 12 months ago at VCBet.