Sky Bet Chase Betting Preview

Given recent weather conditions, one suspects that the going will be pretty testing at Southwell this weekend when their best day's racing takes place on Saturday, the highlight of which is the valuable Skybet Chase. Given that he is proven over farther, Mon Mome's stamina will prove to be a real asset and it's no surprise to see that Venetia Williams' charge is heading the ante-post markets of both the sponsors and totesport. However, 8/1 shot New Alco is the one to be on. The Ferdy Murphy-trained gelding has posted cracking efforts in defeat the last twice, finishing third to Exotic Dancer in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in December before coming out second best to a thrilling finish in a staying chase at the same venue a month later, a race he would have won but for a mistake at the fourth last. In total, the six-year-old has gone up by just 9lb for those two efforts, which I think is pretty reasonable. Consider this: he is just 9lb higher compared to when beaten just three and a half lengths into third behind Exotic Dancer in the Paddy Power, and that winner has subsequently followed up in the bolesports.com Gold Cup and found only Kauto Star too good in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. To my mind, that form puts New Alco streets ahead of these rivals. His latest effort over 3m 1½f suggests that the 2m 4½f of the Paddy Power was on the sharp side for New Alco, which makes that valiant effort all the more meritorious. The son of Dom Alco is open to plenty of improvement and I'll be disappointed if this Listed race isn't within his compass. Mon Mome has lost no caste in defeat in two prestigious staying chases recently, the Welsh National and latterly the totesport Classic Chase at Warwick where was beaten four lengths into second by Ladalko. The seven-year-old is bound to be in the shake-up, but I feel that he will struggle to cope with the finishing kick of New Alco. Nozic improved for his UK debut when chasing home Too Forward in a competitive contest at Cheltenham last time out. However, that was over 2m 5f and he did little to suggest to me that this step up to 3m½f will be in his favour. Indeed, he appeared to run out of petrol that day, so I will be surprised if sees out this distance with underfoot conditions likely to be somewhere between soft and heavy. Ever Present is progressing nicely and did well to hang on after tiring badly on the long run-in at Kelso last month, But while he is far from exposed in this sphere, he has gone up 18lb in total for his last two wins and he will not find it so easy to burn these rivals off with his trailblazing style of racing. Reveillez was below par last time having fallen on his seasonal reappearance. James Fanshawe's charge would be in with a definite chance if able to recapture his best, but his jumping needs to improve if he is to land a competitive contest like this which will be run at a strong pace. In essence, he's too risky for me. Nadover is in good form and should run his race, while Rosses Point is a chaser going places, hailing from the excellent Evan Williams stable. He merits respect, along with Umbrella Man, who is lightly raced for his years and should make his presence felt. But I am unwavering in my support for New Alco, who looks a notch above these in my opinion. Verdict - 1pt New Alco @ 8/1 (totesport.com)