South Africa vs England Third Test Betting Analysis

The test series between South Africa and England is now intricately balanced at 1-1, and will be decided in the space of 12 days with the final two games in the altitude of Johannesburg and Centurion.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> The thin air of the High Veld certainly makes for different conditions to those experienced at sea level in the first three games, and it is probably just as well that the organisers managed to allow a break between Cape Town and Joburg. Even with this break, 25 days of test match action within 40 days is a hectic schedule, and there were definitely signs of weariness seeking into the England camp at Newlands. Mark Butcher was injured before the start of that game, and has now been sent home to be replaced by Ian Bell. He will not play at this stage, but any more injuries and the Warwickshire batsman could well be thrown into the fray. Another concern regards Andrew Flintoff who has strained a muscle in his side. This has so far restricted him to batting in the nets since Newlands, but even as a batsman his place in the starting eleven is virtually assured. It is easy to be confident when winning, and the poor form of Michael Vaughan did not seem so important when this was the case. However, a solitary defeat, and two team innings dismissals for less than 164 in Durban and Cape Town, bring his plight very much to the forefront of the mind. A series average of 14 is bettered even by Steve Harmison, the definitive rabbit at number eleven. This is a ground which has tended to produce convincing results in recent times, with three of the last five matches being decided by more than an innings margin. One of these involved England in 1999 when South Africa won by an innings and 21 runs. In 1995 Michael Atherton produced the innings of a lifetime to save the match when his side looked dead and buried. With this in mind, South Africa should be supported at 5/2 to win the game. Their bowling attack has improved no end, especially when put against an England batting line-up which has suddenly lost confidence. Flintoff is an obvious worry, and whilst the seamer has tended to prosper here, the bad form of Steve Harmison detracts from the England bowlers massively. England have not won here since 1956, and whilst we do not see a crisis for England after one loss, we do feel that the momentum has clearly switched to the home side. A trip to a ground where there is a distinct home advantage, and where only Australia have won in the last eleven matches will only boost them further. Followers of our previews may be getting bored with our selecting Jacques Kallis to be the top South African scorer in the match, but we don't tire of winning, and once again we feel he has to be supported. His class is there for all to see, and for all the criticism occasionally levied towards his negative approach, he is the very keystone to this Proteas outfit. A dismissal for a duck in the first innings of the first test was crucial in allowing England to win the game, but he has been utterly determined not to allow himself another failure since. Since then his scores have read 61, 162, 10 (when totally exhausted in Durban), 149 and 66. We have selected him to top score in both tests two and three, and the number four has come good in both instances. The price has shortened slightly, from 7/2 and 15/4 in Durban and Cape Town respectively, to a best of around 3/1 this time, but we feel this must be taken. His overall test average of 55.47 is comparable to a ground average at the Wanderers of 54.90. In three of the last four test matches at this venue, Kallis has top scored, and considering his exceptional form (an average of 74.67 in this series), 3/1 is a fine price. Some may point to the average of Graeme Smith at the ground of 83.00, but this has been claimed in just three innings, and his form this series has been poor, with four dismissals for less than ten runs. Kallis is the best batsman in the team, if not series or indeed the world, and should be supported.