Stan James 2000 Guineas Betting Preview

Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O'Brien has sent out the winner of the first colts' Classic of the season three times in the last decade, including with Footstepsinthesand last year, and George Washington is a top-priced 2/1 to enhance that record by landing Saturday's Stan James 2000 Guineas on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket. However, while the son of Danehill is an imposing individual with bags of scope and has proved that he has a real engine under the bonnet, I personally think that his price is ridiculous given what he has achieved thus far. George Washington's cramped odds are largely due to his impressive eight-length victory in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh last August. Although it was hard not to be taken with the way he sprinted clear of his rivals, those that were left toiling in his wake that day were not genuine Group One rivals, so it's premature to start thinking of George Washington as any kind of world-beater. Indeed, he was just workmanlike when prevailing in the National Stakes next time out, again beating rivals that are probably no better than Group Three standard. Furthermore, it is well worth considering the statistic that no horse in recent times that has won the Phoenix Stakes as a juvenile has gone on to win the 2000 Guineas the following season. Add to that the fact that O'Brien's horses have started the season poorly and we have us a favourite that's well worth opposing. If value is what you're after, then my advice is to take a close look at Opera Cape, who is a staggering 20/1 with VC Bet at the time of writing. The Barathea colt will be bidding to emulate Haafhd, who was third in the Dewhurst as a two-year-old before going on to win the following season's 2000 Guineas, and has a far better chance of doing so than his odds suggest. Trained by Sylvester Kirk last term, Opera Cape improved with virtually every outing, culminating in his fine third behind Sir Percy and Horatio Nelson in the Dewhurst, in which he was beaten under two lengths, yet the eventual winner is as short as 3/1 for this, the runner-up is a top-priced 7/1, while Opera Cape can be backed at 20s! On that evidence, the selection wouldn't need to improve much to be on a par with Sir Percy and, given that he's spent the winter in Dubai having been purchased by Godolphin, there is every chance that he will have come on a good deal, and he could hardly be in better hands, that of those responsible for sending out Mark Of Esteem to win this very race in 1996. Commensurate with being by Barathea, Opera Cape appreciates a bit of cut in the ground, so if the going ended up riding good or softer, then that would be a bonus. But he ran well under faster conditions on his first two races at two, and will have done plenty of work on firm going in Dubai, so it's unlikely that underfoot conditions will play too big a role where he is concerned. All in all, Opera Cape rates a fine each-way bet and, with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, he will be partnered by a tactically astute jockey who will no doubt make plenty of use of him, given that he shapes as though he will eventually stay farther than Saturday's trip of a mile. Sir Percy has yet to taste defeat and, on form, is the one to beat. His trainer, Marcus Tregoning, has been bullish about his charge's claims in the build up to this race and he is the one I fear most, although quite why he is a fraction of Opera Cape's price remains a mystery to me. George Washington's stable companion Horatio Nelson looks the type to do better when stepped up to middle-distances and I reckon he'll find the mile a bit too stiff, while Barry Hills' trio, Killybegs, Olympian Odyssey Red Clubs, are all smart colts in their own right but it would be a major surprise to me if either of those were to prove good enough to win this. Last year's Gimcrack and Middle Park winner Amadeus Wolf needs to prove his stamina and, in any case, I can't see him winning given that there are others with far more scope but Asset, who hails from Richard Hannon's yard, appears to have more to offer and could well sneak into a place.