The Breeders' Cup Mile Betting Tips

Jeremy Noseda's charge Araafa bounced back from his disappointing effort in the Sussex Stakes when chasing home George Washington in the QEII and he looks set to play a leading role in the NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile at Churchill Down on Saturday. A winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas at St James's Palace Stakes earlier in the season, Araafa's prominent style of racing will stand him in good stead at this track, especially given that he's been allocated stall three. However, I can see him being mugged late on. There are a number of horses in the field that like to race up with, or near to, the pace. This could set the race up for a come-from-behind performer, and the one that appeals most is Ad Valorem. The Danzig colt, who ran a fine trial for this when third in the Woodbine Mile in September, demonstrated that he is able to mix it with the best over eight furlongs when outpointing subsequent Sussex Stakes victor Court Masterpiece in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. That performance alone entitles him to serious respect in this race, which is hardly a vintage renewal following the defection of George Washington. The major concern is that while stall one seems the ideal berth, as he's a hold-up horse, there's a distinct possibility that he could encounter traffic problems. But Jamie Spencer will be pre-empting this likely occurrence, and if the Irishman gets a little bit of luck in running, I can envisage him proving good enough to land the spoils - the offer of 16/1 with Stan James is simply too good to miss. Stalemate Aussie Rules isn't out of this by any means, but his outside draw will make life tough, while Frankie Dettori has chosen Echo Of Light over Librettist, which is an interesting move. Echo Of Light has always been held in high regard by all at Godolphin and he comes into this race with a full head of steam following victories the last twice. However, he will have to step up a notch to come out on top on Saturday. Librettist failed to run his race in the QEII and is best forgiven that below par effort. He proved himself to be a crack miler when winning three races on the bounce in France previously. But one suspects that the going might be a shade on the quick side for him and he will be vulnerable to the speedier sorts. A similar remark applies to mudlark Sleeping Indian, who is actually better over seven furlongs anyway. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Rob Roy excelled himself when chasing home Pride in the ten-furlong Champion Stakes last time, but he'll probably find things happening too quickly back over this sharp mile. Top US miler Aragorn and Gorella, who was third in this race last year, fly the flag for the home team and they merit the utmost respect. Aragorn, who was trained by David Loder originally, has made great strides this season and is bound to be popular amongst the US punters, but it will be disappointing if one of the European raiders don't prevail.Verdict: 1pt Ad Valorem @ 16/1 (Stan James)