The Myth of Aussie Invincibility

Australia will win the Ashes, easily, no question about it. England have two hopes, slim & none - & Slim has just left town.Who is responsible for such pessimistic, if not downright treacherous, sentiments? Well, just about everyone really. England are being written off to an even greater extent than before the 2005 series (and we all know what happened then don't we?) with gloomy forecasts of 4 & 5 nil thrashings abounding (& not just from rent-a-gob Glenn McGrath). Freddie isn't fit, Harmison's radar is way off the mark, Hoggard won't be able to operate with a Kookaburra ball, the Aussies are going to hit Monty out of the attack - and that's before they start on the batting! Trescothick is too fragile mentally to cope, Bell will be Warne's bunny again, Cook is too inexperienced and Flintoff & Pietersen won't be able to hit sixes for fun on the larger Australian grounds.To be fair to the army of pessimists they have been prepared to put their money where their mouths are, with the result that, through sheer weight of cash, Stan James are now shortest price on the Aussies at 1/4. This is a far cry from our opening prices after England had just regained the urn when Ricky Ponting's men were 6/5 shots.Since then Australia have went on an almost unbroken run of success with resounding test wins against South Africa & the West Indies, plus the farcical ICC XI encounter, before more recently tuning up by lifting the ICC Champions Trophy. In contrast England spluttered to defeat in Pakistan before drawing with India & Sri Lanka before, most recently, gaining revenge on Pakistan in an 'eventful' home series.More worrying however has been the spate of injuries which has deprived England of skipper Michael Vaughan and paceman Simon Jones, two absolutely crucial members of the 2005 team.So on the face of it those forecasting a heavy defeat for England 'Down Under' would seem to have everything in their favour. Scratch the surface however and quite a different picture is revealed. First of all, the relative form of the two sides since the last Ashes series warrants further scrutiny. Beating a sorry looking West Indies team at home is nothing to get excited about and the wins over South Africa were very closely fought affairs which could easily have went the other way - and the Saffers are nowhere near as good as England. It is true that England did lose to Pakistan, albeit after being in control of the 1st Test for 4 days until being blown away on the fifth.However the Pakistan team in that series was pretty special and would have probably beaten whatever opposition was placed in front of them-Australia included.Then England's patched up team managed to record a first test victory in India for 20 years on their way to a very creditable drawn series. Admittedly failing to beat Sri Lanka at home was disappointing, but more down to complacency rather than any lack of ability. I wouldn't go overboard about the 3-0 success over Pakistan, who were without all their key pacemen, but they were probably still more formidable opposition than the Aussies have dealt with in the last 12 months.So the relative form of the sides isn't such a weighty factor in Australia's favour as may first appear, and remember they haven't played any test cricket for months since a rather unconvincing 2 test tour of Bangladesh. What is of greater importance is the actual make-up of the teams a year on from the last Ashes encounter. The 2-1 scoreline really hides the fact that England totally outplayed the opposition for 3 tests and would have recorded an even more emphatic margin of victory if not for the infamous Manchester weather. Yet the Aussies are hoping to regain the Ashes with the bulk of the 'Dad's Army' cast who were so comprehensively beaten last time.The likes of Justin Langer, Matthew Hayden, Adam Gilchrist, Damien Martyn, McGrath himself and even Shane Warne, all thirty-somethings, can't seriously have improved in the last year or so can they? In the same period England have seen the emergence of Ian Bell & Alistair Cook as batsmen of true test class whilst Paul Collingwood has also progressed into a solid performer at this level. On the bowling front Saj Mahmood is far from the finished article but his pace could be very effective on some of the bouncier tracks he will encounter. The jewel in the crown however to emerge into the England ranks in the last year has undoubtedly been Monty Panesar.Already recognised as the best left-arm spinner in the world, Monty now offers England a genuine attacking option in the slow-bowling department.So, rather than dwell on who is missing, England can take positives from the extra strength the side derives from the levels of performance these players can provide.Combined with the continuing high performance from the players who made such a contribution to regaining the Ashes-Flintoff, Pietersen, Harmison, Hoggard, Strauss, Trescothick- the picture for England is anything but as bleak as has been portrayed.If asked about what I think will happen I tell people exactly what I said prior to the 2005 series, 'If Flintoff & Harmison stay fit I can't see England not winning'.So at 9/2 my advice would have to be 'GET ON'!