The Pierse Leopardstown Tips

The Pierse, which is run at Leopardstown on January 14, is one of those handicap hurdles which is always ridiculously competitive. But while such puzzles are hard to solve, if you can collate the pieces and put them together, you'll invariably come up with a value bet. Mister Hight, a 14/1 chance with Paddy Power at the time of writing, is a case in point. My approach is a logical one. However, I am aware that logic doesn't often produce winners, but sometimes, as punters, we can look beyond what's under our very noses. In any case, I'm having a good run with these valuable Irish handicaps this season, and reckon that Mister Hight will do the business. Willie Mullins' charge bounced back from a below-par effort on his penultimate start when easily landing a decent little hurdle at Limerick on Boxing Day, beating Rindoon by three and a half lengths, with Artist's Muse a further three lengths adrift in third. The last-named is a key horse here as he has also met the antepost favourite for this race, Lenrey. Interestingly, Mister Hight gave Artist's Muse 5lb and beat him by over six lengths at Limerick whereas Lenrey beat Ted Walsh's hurdler by three and a half lengths at Fairyhouse where he was in receipt of 11lb. Yet, despite the fact that a line through Artist's Muse gives the selection a clear advantage over Lenrey, Arthur Moore's horse is half the price - 7/1 - of Mister Hight. Both horses beat Artist's Muse with what appeared to be an equal amount in hand, so there really is no reason why Lenrey should be priced up at such a short price compared to Mister Hight. Lenrey does have fewer miles on the clock, but Mister Hight looks well treated. The four-year-old's form tailed off a bit towards the end of last season and he's taken a bit of time to get back on track. However, his display at Limerick suggests that he's back to something like his best. And his best form, which was when easily beating some smart rivals in a Grade 2 over this course and distance in February, was good enough to see him vie for favouritism with Detroit City and Afsoun in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Admittedly, he ran poorly in that race, but he was clearly some way below his best and I reckon he is being underestimated now. Lenrey is without a doubt a major threat, but he'll be getting just 5lb from Mister Hight in this two-mile contest, which is nowhere near enough to tip the scales in his favour to my mind. A more dangerous rival may be Jaamid, particularly from a ratings point of view. The Noel Meade-trained gelding didn't get the run of the race behind Lenrey on December 2 when finishing about eight lengths adrift of that rival on sixth place. Significantly, though, he was checked when making progress approaching the last and while he wouldn't have beaten the winner, he would've finished a good deal closer. As such, he has to be a good bet to come out on top this time given that he'll be meeting Lenrey on 15lb better terms. Cadogan, who was ninth in that race and subsequently ran well behind Beef Or Salmon in a competitive heat at Fairyhouse, also has claims of finishing in front of Lenrey this time. Of the two, Jaamid stands out and is worth a saver, also at 14s with Paddy Power. Atimatov is progressing nicely and merits plenty of respect, while Nicky Henderson's Tarlac and Well Mounted, second and fifth respectively behind Acambo in the Ladbroke, could both play leading roles in this Grade B event. If conditions turn out to be pretty testing, this will aid Tarlac's cause no end. Victram is a standing dish in this type of event and cannot be dismissed lightly, but others look better handicapped. Verdict: 1pt Mister Hight @ 14/1 (Paddy Power) & 0.50pts Jaamind @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)