Third Test: in-running advice

After the first day of play at The Oval in the third and final Test it would be fair to say that things did not exactly go to plan for England captain Michael Vaughan. Firstly he lost the toss and then his bowlers lost the initiative as India closed on 316 for four. It means Vaughan is staring at his first home series loss as a captain and England their defeat on home soil in six years. England, who have to win, were as big as 5/1 with Bet365 after day one with India 7/4 and the draw 5/6. That last price looked awfully short and punters with exchange accounts would have been well advised to lay the stalemate. The concern for England is that they again wasted the new ball and will have to bat last on a wicket which could deteriorate. There were signs of uneven bounce on the first day. One ball from James Anderson, which was timed at less than 80mph, flew from a length. There have been only three scores of more than 300 in history in the fourth innings at The Oval, which does not bode well for the hosts if India were to post more than 450 in their first dig. South Africa made 423 in 1947, England scored 308 for four against the same team in 1965 and India hit 429 for nine in 1979. Worse is the record of chasing sides in south London. The highest fourth innings target reached was 263, by England way back in 1902. And there have been only five successful chases of more than 200. There is small glimmer of hope for England, however. In 2003, England, under Vaughan, needed to beat South Africa at The Oval to level the series. The visitors closed day one on 362 for four. But a remarkable comeback saw England win by nine wickets.