TONY BLAIR AT ODDS-ON TO BE NAMED FIRST PRESIDENT OF EU COUNCIL

Despite being labelled a "fake candidate" by the Brookings Institution, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has been listed at an odds-on price to be named EU President. Ladbrokes, a popular UK-based bookie, has named Blair the top candidate by a very wide margin- and it could turn out to be a masterstroke as punters are beginning to pile on to the next EU President betting markets. Currently, Blair can be backed at 1.9- which is just slightly below even money. Jan-Peter Balkenende is available at 6.0 while former Prime Minister of Spain Felipe Gonzalez carries a 7.0 price tag alongside Jean-Claude Juncker from Luxembourg. Juncker could turn out to be the dark horse for the EU Presidency, as I think the member nations will favour one of the "Benelux" countries in lieu of a nation that isn't 100% an EU member any way. The short-list continues to be quite long, but I personally think that only Blair, Balkenende, Gonzalez, Juncker and maybe Paavo Lipponen (9.0) actually have a genuine shot at this. Other contenders include Fogh Rasmussen at 13.0, Guy Verhofstadt and Wolfgang Schlussel at 15.0 and Poul Nyrop Rasmussen at 17.0. Bertie Ahern is listed alongside Francois Fillon, Giuliano Amato and Herman Van Rompuy at 26.0 while Martii Ahtisaari, Mary Robinson and Ursula Plaasnik are all listed at 34.0. Chris Patten is at 51.0, Costas Karamanlis is at 67.0 while Angela Merkel and Gordon Brown are the outside long-shots at 101.0 each. I have a feeling that the price on Blair is artificially low. He doesn't seem to be particularly popular in a lot of areas and despite being more than qualified for the EU Presidency, many feel that the nomination of High Representative could be a tit-for-tat trade off between the left and right. The Brookings Institution commented that "(The EU Presidency) will ultimately depend on the personality of the high representative." They go on to declare that if Bernard Kouchner (an avowed Socialist) gets the High Representative seat then a conservative will be appointed to the post of EU President- something that would effectively rule out Tony Blair in their eyes. Either way, I think this is going to be a bit of a rollercoaster over the next while and I am confident that it's either going to be a Briton or a Luxembourgian holding the EU Presidency.