Totesport Ayr Gold Cup Betting Tips

Although in name terms Hogmaneigh would be the most apt winner of the totesport Ayr Gold Cup at the Great Western meeting on Saturday, it's Appalachian Trail that the locals will be cheering home - he's trained by Glaswegian Ian Semple - and I reckon they will have reason to celebrate after the six-furlong cavalry charge. The five-year-old, a 10/1 chance with totesport has looked as good as ever this season and has been knocking on the door in some of the most competitive handicaps in the calendar, at trips ranging from between six furlongs and a mile. Although he kept failing to get his head in front, he was consistently covering himself in glory. However, when encountering ease in the ground for the first time this season at Newmarket last time - and tackling the most testing conditions he's faced in his career thus far (soft) - Ian Semple's charge really sparked and produced a most taking performance to quicken from off of the pace to readily beat Assertive by two lengths in what looked a tight little Listed event. The give underfoot clearly suited him at the Suffolk track and, with it riding good, good to soft in places at the time of writing with plenty of rain predicted between now and the race, similar conditions are likely to prevail come the weekend. Furthermore, despite winning easily at Newmarket, Appalachian Trail will be much better suited by this return to a big-field handicap. He will get plenty of cover in the early stages and I reckon his potent turn of foot will prove decisive in the closing stages. Another horse who will be finishing to good effect is Quito. This old warrior - he's now a nine-year-old, but retains all of his enthusiasm - has developed into a genuine Group-class performer over the past few seasons and he will give it a good shot. But his 7lb penalty incurred for winning at Haydock on his penultimate start leaves him with 10st 6lb to carry. This is surely too much to ask - giving 16lb to Appalachian Trail makes for a seemingly insurmountable task. Hogmaneigh, who caught the eye in no uncertain terms when beating subsequent winner Gimasha at Sandown on his penultimate start, was noted putting in good late work behind Fantasy Believer at York. He looked unlucky on that occasion as he was bumped at the start and was still virtually last at halfway, and then encountered traffic problems when starting his run, eventually beaten three and a half lengths into third. But it's debatable whether he would have beaten Fantasy Believer on the day anyway. Personally I think the best horse won, although I do feel that Hogmaneigh will reverse the placings this time, with the likely easier ground, stepping back up to six furlongs and this stiffer track all being factors which will play to his strengths. The wonderfully genuine and tough Borderlescott, who came out on top in the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood last time, is bound to make a bold bid. A 3lb rise looks fair and he's comparatively fresh compared to the likes of Fantasy Believer, Excusez Moi and Quito having had just four outings so far this term. Robin Bastiman's stable star is a live danger. Mutamared was beaten a neck into second by Borderlescott at Goodwood and there's little doubt that he possesses the ability to win a race of this nature, but he's a frustrating sort who cannot be relied upon, while Wyatt Earp is better than ever this season but looks vulnerable off what is now a career-high mark. Roger Charlton's Burning Incense has to enter calculations following his victory at Newmarket last time where he showed a smart change of gear to mow his rivals down in the closing stages. He is clearly a progressive sort and merits the utmost respect, but he will need to step up significantly once again to win this, and I don't think he'll be quite up to it at this stage of his career. Verdict - 1pt e/w Appalachian Trail @ 10/1 (totesport )