Totesport Chester Cup - We tip Larkwing

The statistics clearly indicate that it's best to side with one at the foot on the handicap in Wednesday's totesport Chester Cup (2.30) and none make more appeal in this year's renewal than the Geoff Wragg-trained LARKWING, who looks overpriced at 11-1 with the sponsors. Only Rainbow High in 2001 and Travelling Light in 1990 have humped more than 9st round the twists and turns of the Roodee to victory in this prestigious handicap. Indeed, nine of the last 17 winners have carried between 7st 8lb and 8st 8lb, proving that it pays to side with a lightly weighted runner.With just 8st 2lb to shoulder, the unexposed Larkwing looks just the type for this race. The Ela-Mana-Mou colt, who is comparatively lightly raced for a four-year-old having had just nine career starts, has yet to tackle a trip in excess of 12 furlongs, but shapes as though this stamina test will play to his strengths.The selection made a highly encouraging seasonal reappearance at Newmarket last month in a well-contested heat where he came with what looked a winning run two furlongs out but couldn't quite reel the front two in, finishing a one-length third behind a smart pair in Tartouche and Bendarshaan. That effort will have sharpened him up no end and his finishing speed could prove decisive on this sharp track.Furthermore, Geoff Wragg has enjoyed a 33% strike-rate with his runners aged four or older at Chester over the last five years - a record which speaks for itself. It's no surprise to see the Aidan O'Brien-trained Coconut Beach head the betting at around the 5-1 mark following the Tipperary-based handler's exploits over the weekend. The Sadler's Wells colt has had just three career starts and could well be chucked in here with just 8st 5lb to carry. However, his lack of experience in competitive handicaps and the fact that his action suggests he is far better suited to more galloping, undulating tracks makes me think he's worth opposing.More dangerous, in my opinion, is the Mark Johnston-trained Swift Sailor, who looked one to follow when scoring on his seasonal debut and handicap bow at Musselburgh in March. The Maktoum Al Maktoum-owned grey demonstrated a thoroughly likeable attitude when beating subsequent winner Nounou by 1¾l there with stablemate Mana d'Argent, who re-opposes on 6lb better terms on Wednesday, held in third. Swift Sailor is most certainly ahead of the handicapper and looks like one of those archetypal progressive stayers that his stable is esteemed for consistently producing. On the downside, the pace was rather sedate when he scored at Musselburgh last time and I feel that he too, like Coconut Beach, may be found wanting for a bit of tactical speed on this tight track where it is so important that a horse can hold a position and travel well, while being able to demonstrate a turn of foot.Anak Pekan won last year's renewal in a hat canter but has plenty more on his plate off a 13lb higher mark this time around, against some unexposed, improving types. The way Michael Jarvis' charge won that day suggested that he could hold his own in Group company but, after a solid run in defeat in the Northumberland Plate, the In The Wings gelding ran poorly in three pattern races, and all the evidence suggest that he's going to be hard to place this season.Big Moment, placed in the last two runnings of this, has claims along with Doncaster winner Dr Sharp and Philip Hobbs' Unleash, but Larkwing gains the confident verdict.Betting verdict: 1pt each way Larkwing @ 11-1 with totesport