Totesport Classic Betting Analysis

Saturday's TOTESPORT CLASSIC CHASE at Warwick is shaping up to be a competitive affair and plenty to go into the race in good form. But D'ARGENT, who is starting to look dangerously well handicapped, looks the best value in an open race at a top-priced 12-1 with Victor Chandler. The eight-year-old ran far better than his finishing position suggests when last of five behind the classy Colonel Frank at Sandown last time where he was hampered when still in contention approaching the third-last. That effort offered far more encouragement than his penultimate start at Wincanton where he simply failed to fire in the Badger Ales Trophy won by Royal Auclair in November. However, that run is best forgotten, as the Alan King stable was not in great form at the time. Furthermore, D'Argent is now able to race off a 9lb lower mark, which puts him on a potentially lenient mark of 134. Although this trip of 3m 5f represents unchartered waters for D'Argent, he showed no sign of stopping when bolting up over 3m 2f at the Warwickshire venue last year and shapes as though, if anything, he will improve for a stiffer test of stamina. The reason for a slightly disappointing sequence of form for D'Argent can be attributed to a loss of confidence in his own jumping ability, something that started last February when he was a well-beaten favourite behind Exit Swinger, a race also held at Wincanton. During the race he persistently jumped to the left and was somewhat uncharacteristically novicey. However, he won three races on the bounce here last year, demonstrating a clear penchant for the track and it may well be the case that, returning to these forgiving fences and crucially to a right-handed track, will galvanise him. Dangers are aplenty and Double Honour could well go close. He has consistently been campaigned against the cream of the staying handicap chasers and, while he may need a little sympathy from the handicapper before being able to win a race of this nature, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he will give a good account. Likely favourite Grattan Lodge has been shrewdly campaigned by trainer Howard Johnson and goes into the race as a relatively unexposed horse with a progressive profile. Further improvement looks on the cards but, off a mark of 136, he does not look particularly well treated on the basis of what he has achieved and, at around the 5-1 mark, represents little value. Merchants Friend has been most unpredictable over the last couple of seasons and does not look one to trust implicitly. If putting his best foot forward he would not be far away, but his bloodless victory in a weak race at Haydock last time has earned him a 10lb hike in the ratings - putting him on a career-high mark. With this in mind, he is readily passed over. A similar comment applies to the bold-jumping Historic. He was impressive when scoring cosily at Sandown last time, but a 6lb rise for winning a messy race against generally out-of-sorts rivals leaves him looking vulnerable.