Totesport Ebor Betting Preview

With the English weather proving more unpredictable than ever this year, it would be unwise to take too much for granted. However, the general consensus ahead of York's Ebor meeting is that the going will be riding fast. Bearing this in mind, many ante-post punters may be sweating in the heat, as current totesport Ebor favourite Balkan Knight, who is as short as 7-1 in a place, but generally an 8-1 chance, is far more effective when there's cut in the ground.He has yet to race on ground faster than good, admittedly. But even genuine good ground has looked plenty fast enough for him in the past, and all his very best efforts have come on good to soft going. In addition, it is no surprise that connections have never even ran him on a quick surface before, because he is by Selkirk, whose appreciation of give underfoot has been bequeathed to virtually all of his progeny.If the heavens were to open leading up to the race, I'll be retracting these words. But, as it stands, a deluge over the Knavesmire looks unlikely and I'd recommend opposing David Elsworth's charge and having a punt on Crow Wood at the generally available 14-1. The selection has improved markedly this season in the care of local trainer John Quinn. Commensurate with the progression, the six-year-old has been rising in the weights. However, it's hard to crib his form and he is a tough, genuine performer, who relishes fast ground.He ran an absolute corker to be second to Mullins Bay in the John Smith's Cup on the Knavesmire last month. He stayed on well in the closing stages without ever landing a blow at that winner, but given that the mile and a quarter trip was an inadequate test of stamina, and that Mullins Bay is a Group-class horse in the making, that was a highly creditable effort.In addition, the form of his penultimate start has worked out extremely well. Again at York, Crow Wood made Notable Guest pull out all the stops in the mile and a half Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at the Royal meeting, going down by just half-a-length to that winner, but finishing nicely clear of the remainder. Notable Guest dotted up in a Group Three contest at Haydock subsequently, giving the form a timely boost. Therefore, despite being off a career-high mark, Crow Wood is not badly handicapped off a mark 5lb higher than when posting that solid effort.The son of Halling doesn't have seconditus, though, having displayed a winning attitude when only needing to be driven out to beat Balkan Knight by two lengths on good going at Epsom in June with Sergeant Cecil under one length further away in third. Sure, Balkan Knight will be 10lb better off in the Ebor, but the fact that conditions will be against him swings the balance of positives firmly in Crow Wood's favour. Sergeant Cecil is as tough and reliable as they come and will be hard to keep out of the frame. He is 7lb better off with the selection compared to that race at Epsom, and off a mark just 4lb higher than when landing the Northumberland Plate, will be many punters' choice. However, he often finds one or two too good at this level, and I reckon that will be the case this time too.Luca Cumani tasted success in this race last year with Mephisto, and has a similarly progressive sort for this year's renewal in the shape of Zeitgeist, who responded well to the application of a visor when running on well to beat Red Lancer by two lengths in the prestigious Old Newton Cup at Haydock.The four-year-old has clearly been trained with this race in mind and is hard to omit from calculations, although the Old Newton Cup form looks decidedly shaky, as most of the principals failed to run to form and those that were close up have done little to advertise the form subsequently. Sendintank is one that I fear. He improved beyond all recognition last year. He scooted up at Wolverhampton off a mark of 50 in January 2004. Nine wins and a number of excellent efforts in defeat thereafter, he wound up the season rated 96, which illustrates the strides which he made.There was much promise in his effort here last time when under one length third to Lost Soldier Three in a Listed handicap. That effort gives him solid form claims and he must go well. What puts me off, however, is that, like Balkan Knight, his best form has come on an easier surface, which makes me think that he will be tapped for toe on what is set to much faster ground than would be ideal.The James Fanshawe-trained Defining, and Irish raiders Hippodrome and Orpington, especially the last-named, who hails from the astute Dermot Weld yard, are all in with live each-way chances.When it comes to the crunch, though, Crow Wood make plenty of appeal as a very solid each-way punt given that he will go into the Ebor on the crest of a wave, looks set to appreciate the fourteen-furlong trip, and will handle conditions better than the other principals.Betting verdict: 1pt e/w Crow Wood @ 14/1 (VCbet)