Totesport Mile betting preview

Totesport Mile, 4th August 2006The totesport Mile is a race that has been kind to me in recent years, most notable when landing a nice ante-post touch with Unshakable in last year's renewal. This year I'm pretty confident that I'll unearth the winner once more. Firstly - and I know I shat be scoring much points on the originality front with this one - but Sir Gerard, an 8/1 chance with bet365, quite simply has to be part of any punters portfolio of bets for this big one-mile handicap. In my opinion, James Fanshawe's charge produced one of the best performances in a handicap all season when coming from well off the pace to beat a good field in the 30-runner Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. The Marju colt had nowhere to go two furlongs out and was still towards the tail of the field, but once daylight emanated through the wall of horses he quickened up in some style and had more in hand than two lengths by which he beat Easy Air in the end. Admittedly, this race will represent a far sterner test as the Britannia is confined to the three-year-olds - taking on the older brigade in these ultra competitive handicaps is never easy for a member of the Classic generation - and the handicapper has bumped him up 10lb for that victory. However, as his entry in the Group 2 Celebration Mile suggests, Sir Gerard is thought to be a Group-class horse in the making. The ground should be on the firm side of good at Goodwood for the Glorious meeting, which clearly suits this colt, and providing that he is drawn middle to high (only one horse has won this race from a single-figure draw in the last decade), he can emulate Fly To The Stars, who also won the Britannia en route to landing this contest in 1997. Another horse that could turn out to be better than a handicapper in time is Hinterland, who stayed on really well to land a valuable prize at Sandown where he appeared to have a fair bit left up his sleeve when proving just over a length too good for Ace Of Hearts. Michael Jarvis is as adept as any trainer at bringing this type of horse through the ranks and, as he is rated 105 at present, one more win in a major handicap would probably force connections to go down the pattern-race route. This Danzig colt merits the utmost respect, but the two races he have won this season have lacked a strong-finisher and, although excuses were made for his defeat in the Royal Hunt Cup, I reckon that he will be vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot like Sir Gerard. Hinterland's stablemate Notability ran a fine race in defeat when under four lengths third to Echo Of Light in the Group 3 Ladbrokes Summer Mile on the all weather at Lingfield last time. But, although he was a tad unlucky in the Victoria Cup on good to firm in May, on the other two occasions he has raced on a fast surface he was disappointed and, in my opinion, he's best watched until the autumn when he should get the cut in the ground that he needs. In addition to Sir Gerard, my advice is to have an investment in Another Bottle for this race, about which Ladbrokes offer a tempting 20/1, which makes plenty of appeal as a value each-way bet. Roger Charlton's charge was a major flop in the Royal Hunt Cup behind Cesare when he was the subject of a huge ante-post plunge. However, something was clearly amiss that day as he was eased fully two furlongs out, and he duly delivered a far more encouraging display when putting in good late work without being knocked about when mid-division in the Bunbury Cup over seven furlongs at Newmarket's July meeting. That was an eyecatching effort and one which suggested that whatever went wrong at Royal Ascot has left no lasting effects. Stepping back up to a mile here will be just what the doctor ordered and he remains feasibly treated off a mark of 98, 6lb higher than for his last win, which was in the competitive Ladbrokes.com Stakes at Newbury last July. This gelding is lightly-raced for a five-year-old and definitely has a big handicap in him. The way he has been campaigned this season - he's had just three starts during the current campaign - strongly suggests to me that Charlton is teeing him up for a big prize like this. Hunt Cup victor Cesare was well beaten in the Group 3 event won by Echo Of Light on the all weather last time out and is probably best forgiven that indifferent display. He looked unlucky when finishing well when third to Unshakable in this race last season and a strongly-run mile and a big field is clearly a combination that brings out the best in this five-year-old. He proved at Royal Ascot that he is just as effective on a quick surface as he is when there's juice in the ground. It will be interesting to see, if indeed he does also go to post, who Jamie Spencer picks out of him and Sir Gerard here. My guess is, though, and a pretty confident one at that, that he'll be siding with Sir Gerard, whom he was extremely bullish about following his Britannia triumph. Luca Cumani's Pride Of Nation is best forgiven his below par display when strongly fancied in the Hunt Cup as he was drawn on the 'wrong' side. It would be no surprise to see him go well, along with Bunbury Cup fifth Easy Air, Forgery, who unlucky when fourth to Fairmile in the John Smith's Cup, and the latter's stablemate Pinpoint. The last-named has shaped well in both of his starts this term, finishing an unlucky-in-running fourth in the Victoria Cup before a creditable sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup. He too has a big race in him but I reckon that, as in the case of Notability, his turn will come later in the season when there is a bit of give underfoot. Verdict - 1pt win Sir Gerard @ 8/1 (bet365) & 0.50pts e/w Another Bottle @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)