Totesport November Stakes Betting Analysis

LETS ROLL RATES NOVEMBER VALUE With the ground likely to be testing at Doncaster on Saturday, it's of paramount importance to find a horse with proven stamina in the competitive totesport November Stakes. Since 1988, nine winners of this valuable 12-furlong contest have been three-year-olds, and the classic generation is again well represented in this year's renewal with the first four in the betting: Ebtikaar, Group Captain, Crosspeace and Gold Gun. Ebtikaar is a worthy favourite given that he is on the upgrade, handles cut in the ground, is at the right end of the handicap, and his stamina is proven. However, he needs to be produced from well off the pace, a style of running which has often led to him encountering traffic problems at the business end of his races, and, at around the 5-1 mark, he doesn't make much appeal from a value perspective. In contrast, the 10-1 on offer about Lets Roll looks generous. The four-year-old hails from Chris Thornton's stable, responsible for the winner of this in 1999, Flossy, and the Middleham handler could well be celebrating victory in this contest again shortly after 3.35pm on Saturday. Lets Roll was never able to land a blow when mid-division in the Cesarewitch last time, but is much better judged on his impressive performance at Ayr previously where he raced prominently before taking command two furlongs out and striding clear to beat Mt Desert by ten lengths. Although the handicapper had his say in raising the son of Tamure by 8lb to a mark of 90, his overall profile suggests that he is still on an upward curve, so I wouldn't be overly concerned about that. Moreover, the fact that he has solid form over farther than 12 furlongs - he has been placed at trips of up to 15 furlongs - and his established preference for give underfoot, ensures that he will be well equipped for this assignment. In addition, the excellent apprentice Saleem Golam, who claims a valuable 3lb, is riding like a man possessed at present, with the apprentices' championship still within his grasp, so it's an added bonus that the Mauritian will be in the saddle. Lets Roll likes to be ridden just off the pace, and I can see him sauntering into the lead turning for home, drawing the sting out of the speedier types, while exposing the potential stamina shortcomings in some of his rivals, and there's a good chance that none of his rivals will be able to reel him in. Of the principals, Crosspeace is the one most likely to be struggling to get home at the end of a truly-run race over this trip on an easy surface. Mark Johnston's charge has yet to race over further than ten furlongs and while he has arguably the strongest form claims in the race, reviewing his efforts over that trip strongly suggest that he will find this trip stretching his stamina that bit too far. No stamina concerns surround Group Captain, who hails from a stable in fine form, that of Sylvester Kirk, and whom recorded a course and distance victory when beating Wingman last month. A reproduction of that effort will see him competitive in this, despite it being a markedly tougher race, while Michael Jarvis' Gold Gun is an unexposed sort, who ran a cracking race to be third to Kerashan on his first start for nearly six months at Leicester last time. Interestingly, Gold Gun beat subsequent Group Three scorer Kong when landing a Newbury maiden in April, and, if he adapts to the rough and tumble of a big-field handicap like this, he will prove to be a big danger. Betting verdict: 1pt win Lets Roll @ 10/1 (VCBET)