Tri-Nations: Australia V South Africa

The career of Eddie Jones is surely on the line this week, when his Wallabies take on South Africa in Round 4 of the 2005 Tri-Nations. After losing the Bledisloe Cup game with New Zealand last week, and convincingly so, by 30-13, the press have been almost unanimous in their derision of the direction (or lack thereof) of Australian rugby.South Africa remain top of the table, although they are well outside the All Blacks at 3/1 for the title. They will now regard this fixture as a must win, and one eye will also be on a bonus point. Tana Umaga ignored coaching instructions to go for a try last week, and with the final haul being three, they missed out on the bonus by a single touch down. Such decisions could be crucial in the final shake up. Two, possibly the only two, positives to be drawn from last week's game for the Aussies were the displays of their brace of newcomers. Drew Mitchell at Full Back looked very much within his depth and scored a superb try in the first half. Mark Gerrard also looked competent in his first game on the wing, but he will miss out on Saturday with a weak hamstring.They have, as expected made several changes in a bid to end a three match losing streak. Rocky Elsom and Phil Waugh step into the back row in place of George Smith and John Roe. Brendan Cannon will begin at hooker, rather than Jeremy Paul. Elton Flatley starts at fly half, with Matt Giteau reverting to his more usual position of inside centre. Along with Gerrard, two further backs have been sidelined and will be sitting alongside Wendell Sailor and Matt Rogers who are already injured. Stirling Mortlock and Chris Latham are the unavailable men, meaning this will very much be an untested back division, even if Flatley will add some much needed experience at number ten.In contrast, South Africa have an unchanged squad from the one that beat New Zealand in Cape Town a fortnight ago. This is the first time that they have named an identical 22-man squad for consecutive matches since the 1999 World Cup.For all their improvement in the last fifteen months, one thing that has so far eluded the Boks is a significant win away from home. Last year they performed well in both Australia and New Zealand, but were edged out by four and two points respectively.Jake White has labelled an away success as his next targeted stepping stone on the road towards world domination, and we feel there is an outstanding opportunity this weekend. The Wallabies were poor last week, meaning confidence will be low, especially with so many extra absentees.The autumn tour saw very disappointing displays against England, Ireland and Wales, with defeats against the first two, and so there is a doubt over their propensity to play well on the road. However we feel this is the time when they will put paid to that ghost. The height of their achievements last season were a surprise to many, and perhaps they lacked the belief to close out the tight games. With another 12 months and more surety in their genuine abilities, they should be able to see Australia off.The bookies have priced them at 10/11 for this contest, and playing in Perth does negate the 'away factor' to some extent. There is a large Saffer population in the city, and it actually takes less time to fly to Durban than Sydney from the Western Australian capital.